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These are all trends that are manifesting themselves right at the moment, when tech spending is supposed to be robust. These are trends that surface in Avnet (AVT), the tech-part supermarket, which has always been a solid part of the fall tech trade, or in Jabil (JBL), which, too, has been a bedrock fall selection.

I know I believe in this tech cycle. It's worked for years and years. But here it is October, right in the tech sweet spot, and it sure isn't happening.

Maybe it just won't happen at all. The result? Unless you have a very specific tech player that is taking share and taking names -- I am thinking Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) here -- it might not pay to play the tech trade. In fact, it looks like it has become the most deadly trade of all.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long AAPL.

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