The last time I had Pattinson on, which was about one year prior, he sounded so glum that I was about to call the prevention hotline to locate folks who talk people down off of bridges. At that time, Pattinson painted such a bleak picture of the housing market, I was not sure we would see a recovery in housing in my lifetime.
That was then, this is now. I trust Pattinson's opinion of the all-important housing market. After all, not only is he the CEO of Barratt Group in California, he is the former head of the Builder's Industry Association there. Pattinson has seen numerous cycles in California, which I consider to be the epicenter of the single-family home market.
I do not see new lots being cut into the hillsides of sunny, Southern California. I do not see truckloads of lumber headed for the new housing tracts. Nor do I hear construction workers celebrating about all the work they have. I fully expected his answer to be negative. My whole interview to follow was based on that assumption.
Instead he said responded, "Yes, Bill, it is for real!" I thought that he was going to proceed by telling me that there was also a Santa Claus!He then went on to tell me about the wait time to get an appraisal. He told me about the shortage of workers in some markets, and he also reminded me of that very important factor in the housing market: Supply and demand. The homebuilders have not done a lot of building of new homes over the last five years. In addition to this, the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosures is disappearing fast with the voracious appetite of investors looking to buy and turn them into rental units.