Google (GOOG) ($757.84 vs. $692.19 on Sept. 11) has been downgraded to hold from buy according to ValuEngine with fair value at $744.04, which makes the stock 1.9% overvalued.
The ValuEngine one-year price target is $793.30. Google is up 47.1% over the past 12 months with a 19.3 P/E ratio. Google set its latest all-time high at $774.38 last Friday, Oct. 5. My new monthly and quarterly value levels are $720.41 and $713.85 with this week's risky level at $798.11.
PulteGroup (PHM - Get Report) was last profiled on Sept. 27 when I wrote Homebuilders' Valuations Are Extremely Speculative. Pulte ($16.09 vs. $15.30 on Sept. 16) is still buy rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $14.37, which makes the stock 12.0% overvalued.
The ValuEngine one-year price target is $17.98 vs. the multi-year high at $17.47 set on Sept. 21. Pulte has been the best performer among the homebuilders with a 12-month return of 301.3%. By having this extreme mojo the stock has a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 19.7 times vs. 9.9 times back on May 17, 2005 when the stock traded at $86.00.Another overvalued measure is the current market to book at 3.39 vs. trading at a fraction of book value at the October 2011 low. My annual value level lags at $11.37 with a new monthly pivot at $15.56 and this week's risky level at $18.09. My last two posts covering retail were Continue to Book Profits in Consumer Staples, on Sept. 18, and Continue to Book Profits in Consumer Discretionary Stocks on Sept. 19. Walmart (WMT - Get Report) ($75.25 vs. $73.99 on Sept. 17) set another all-time high at $75.55 on Monday. The stock remains rate a strong buy according to ValuEngine with fair value at $72.82, which makes the stock 3.3% overvalued. Walmart has a 14.5 P/E ratio and traded 43.7% higher over the past 12 months. My new quarterly value level is $68.55 with a new monthly pivot at $74.05. I do not have a risky level, but isn't it unusual to have Wal-Mart as a mojo stock? Disney (DIS) ($52.33 vs. $51.90 on Sept. 18) set an all-time high at $53.39 on Sept. 21. The stock remains buy rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $46.75, which makes the stock 11.9% overvalued. Disney is up 67.8% over the past 12 months, has a 14.8 P/E ratio. My annual value level lags at $44.04 with a new quarterly pivot at $52.26 and monthly risky level at $55.82. Home Depot (HD) ($61.88 vs. $58.86 on Sept. 18) set a multi-year high at $63.20 on Friday, Oct. 5. The stock has recently been downgraded to buy from strong buy according to ValuEngine with fair value at $50.92, which makes the stock 21.5% overvalued. The stock has a 12-month forward P/E ratio at 18.7, and has gained 87.1% over the past 12 months. My new quarterly value level is $58.83 with a new monthly pivot at $62.65 and a weekly risky level at $65.46.
How to Use my Value Levels, Pivots and Risky LevelsValue Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness to initiate a new long, add to an existing long, or to begin to cover a short position. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual. Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted. Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength to book a profit on long positions, or to build short positions. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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