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The Best of Kass

Stocks in this article: AAPL

But the Bernstein analysis highlights a positive result will be higher recurring revenue as a percentage of total with potentially higher cash return to investors.

The question is how the valuation will react to this shift in mix.

At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Nothing Is Certain
Originally published on Thursday, Oct. 4 at 2:31 p.m. EDT.

  • Of that I'm certain.
  • The only thing I am certain of is that there will be uncertainty.

    As I have repeatedly written, I try to qualify my opinions and couch my views with words such as "likely" and "may."

    Here are some vivid examples of consensus certainties:

    • In 2006, it was said that home prices would never decline in a 12-month period.
    • Up until recently, there was near unanimity that Apple's (AAPL) shares would only rise. But since the shares went through $700 on the upside, the stock has been an underperformer. The shares are down by $5 today in an otherwise solid market backdrop.
    • Last night on "Fast Money," it caught my attention that there was total unanimity that the price of crude oil would continue its southerly course. The only argument was when to short oil. Today the price of crude is up by nearly $3.50 a barrel!

    To me, the past is not necessarily predictive.

    It exists not to extrapolate but to test the conditions why it should or should not continue.

    The same can be said of equities today and the salutary role that quantitative easing will have on elevating the U.S. stock market.

    On Monday morning, I will refute the current market optimism in a column titled "The Market's Road to Perdition."

    At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in stocks mentioned.

    Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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