'QE Hype' and 'QE Fatigue' Tug of War Continues
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- How the markets react to this morning's payroll data today will determine the status of key weekly closes.
With Mitt Romney winning the first presidential debate on Wednesday, a weaker-than-expected employment report should help him rise in the polls. A stronger-than-expected report should give President Obama a boost, as he will surely tout the slow but steady improvement in the labor market.
Some traders attributed Thursday's stock market strength as a victory rally for Romney. I have a cautious attitude toward that notion as the republican presidential candidate is against the Fed's quantitative easing initiatives.
Remember that one of Romney's campaign pledges is to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. That means the "extended period" for the zero to 0.25% federal funds rate will likely end in early 2014 and the new Fed Chief will likely begin unwinding the quantitative easing programs. Look for that change after the inauguration.As the markets react and trade today, the weekly closes will determine whether or not "QE hype" will push markets above their QE highs set Sept. 14. Markets rallied in anticipation of QE 3. The rally stalled two days after the FOMC statement on Sept. 12. Without new highs I am looking for additional sectors and groups of stocks to succumb to "QE fatigue." Three weeks ago Dow transports caught QE fatigue. Two weeks ago it was semiconductors, the SOX. This week I discussed the risk of QE fatigue in three sectors; industrial products, oils-energy and basic industries in these stories. Oct. 1: Industrial Products Stocks May Catch QE Fatigue Oct. 2: Will the Oils-Energy Sector Catch QE Fatigue? Oct. 4: The Basic Industries Sector Has Not Maintained QE Hype Third quarter earnings season begins next week with Alcoa (AA - Get Report) reporting after the close next Tuesday. On Wednesday the key reports are from Costco (COST) and Google (GOOG). Thursday's reports include Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) and trucker JB Hunt (JBHT). On Friday, the key report comes from Wells Fargo (WFC). I will handicap these names on Monday. This morning we show that 49.7% of all stocks are undervalued with 50.3% overvalued. Thirteen of 16 sectors are overvalued led by medical 17.1%, construction 15.5%, retail-wholesale 14.6%, consumer staples 13.5%, finance 13.4% and utilities by 13.2.%.
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