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Trulia today released the latest findings from the
Trulia Price Monitor and the
Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in
home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through September 30, 2012.
Home Prices Up In Six Out Of Seven Swing States, Including Nevada and Florida
In his bid for re-election, President Obama was especially vulnerable to criticism about
housing, but recent improvements in local markets across the country have moved in his favor. The two swing states with the biggest Y-o-Y price increases –
Florida – had seen huge price declines earlier and a higher foreclosure rate. Among all the swing states, prices declined Y-o-Y only in
North Carolina, and by less than 1 percent.
* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of October 2.
Ending Years of Price Declines, Asking Prices On Track To Rise 4 Percent Nationally in 2012
Nationally, asking home prices have stabilized or have risen throughout 2012. If this year-to-date price trend continues, prices will be up almost 4 percent by the end of the year – ending several years of price declines. In September, asking prices on for-sale homes – which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months – increased 2.5 percent year over year (Y-o-Y). Excluding
foreclosures, Y-o-Y asking prices rose 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, asking prices rose nationally 1.6 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted, and 0.5 percent month over month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted.
September 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
% change in asking prices
# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases
% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted
Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted
Rent Gains Up 4.8 Percent Nationally, Led By Houston and Miami
Nationally, rent gains continue to outpace home price increases in September, rising by 4.8 percent Y-o-Y. Among the largest 25
rental markets, Y-o-Y rents rose the most in Houston and Miami, where they climbed more than 10 percent. Strong job growth has pushed up rental demand in
Houston. Rent increases have cooled most in
San Francisco, from 14.5 percent in June down to 7.2 percent in September.
Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Rent Increases
”The timing of the housing price rebound couldn’t be better for President Obama,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices are up sharply in Nevada and Florida, two swing states that suffered a lot of housing misery, and have risen in six of the seven electoral swing states. Rising prices take pressure off the candidates to propose housing solutions before the election – and make it harder for Romney to criticize the Obama Administration’s housing record.”
”As asking prices continue to climb, 2012 will almost surely be the first year of rising home prices since 2006,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Right now, prices are recovering across the country, with few local markets left behind. While some of these increases are a bounceback from the huge price declines during the recession, price gains are strongest where job growth has boosted housing demand and where declining inventories lead to tighter supply.”
To download the full list of price and rent changes for the largest metro areas, see here.
To download a graph of price changes from November 2010 to September 2012, see here.
To view the full methodology and 2012 release schedule, see
here. The next release of the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor will be Monday, November 5
at 10AM ET.
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