Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through September 30, 2012.
Home Prices Up In Six Out Of Seven Swing States, Including Nevada and Florida
In his bid for re-election, President Obama was especially vulnerable to criticism about housing, but recent improvements in local markets across the country have moved in his favor. The two swing states with the biggest Y-o-Y price increases – Nevada and Florida – had seen huge price declines earlier and a higher foreclosure rate. Among all the swing states, prices declined Y-o-Y only in North Carolina, and by less than 1 percent.
|Asking-Price Changes in Swing States|
|Swing State*||Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, Sept 2012|
|* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of October 2.|
Ending Years of Price Declines, Asking Prices On Track To Rise 4 Percent Nationally in 2012Nationally, asking home prices have stabilized or have risen throughout 2012. If this year-to-date price trend continues, prices will be up almost 4 percent by the end of the year – ending several years of price declines. In September, asking prices on for-sale homes – which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months – increased 2.5 percent year over year (Y-o-Y). Excluding foreclosures, Y-o-Y asking prices rose 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, asking prices rose nationally 1.6 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted, and 0.5 percent month over month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted.
|September 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary|
|% change in asking prices||# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases||% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures|
|Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted||0.5%||(not reported)||0.6%|
|Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted||1.6%||86||1.9%|
|Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Rent Increases|
|#||U.S. Metro||% change in rents, Y-o-Y, Sept 2012||% change in rents, Y-o-Y, June 2012|
|7||San Francisco, CA||7.2%||14.5%|
|10||Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI||6.0%||5.2%|
|Among the 25 largest rental markets.|
- ”The timing of the housing price rebound couldn’t be better for President Obama,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices are up sharply in Nevada and Florida, two swing states that suffered a lot of housing misery, and have risen in six of the seven electoral swing states. Rising prices take pressure off the candidates to propose housing solutions before the election – and make it harder for Romney to criticize the Obama Administration’s housing record.”
- ”As asking prices continue to climb, 2012 will almost surely be the first year of rising home prices since 2006,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Right now, prices are recovering across the country, with few local markets left behind. While some of these increases are a bounceback from the huge price declines during the recession, price gains are strongest where job growth has boosted housing demand and where declining inventories lead to tighter supply.”
- To read the full report, see here.
- To download the full list of price and rent changes for the largest metro areas, see here.
- To download a graph of price changes from November 2010 to September 2012, see here.
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