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Why Ciena Is No Longer Worth the Risk

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The world of investing can be a funny place sometimes, in that, every now and then you come to realize that you are beating up on a company that you once spent so much time defending.

Telecommunications equipment maker Ciena (CIEN - Get Report) serves as the perfect example. It's a company that I've always liked for its technology.

But on the heels of its recent earnings announcement, wanting to give it the benefit of the doubt has become tough. Though a painful death is far from imminent, I just don't think the stock is worth the risk.

The Quarter That Was

In its fiscal third quarter, Ciena reported an operating loss of $4.1 million or 4 cents per share on revenue of $474.1 million. Although revenue arrived in-line with its own forecasts while also showing an annual growth of 9%, it was below analysts' 2 cents per share loss estimate as gross operating margin fell 440 basis points to 39.5%.

What's more, its loss of more than $4 million was glaring when compared to a profit of $8.3 million or 8 cents per share in the same period of a year ago. CEO, Gary Smith attributed the disappointing results to "ongoing macroeconomic challenges and slower than expected roll-outs of new design wins."

The company's outlook was not much better. Ciena expects fourth quarter revenue of $455 to $489 million -- below analysts' estimates of $499.5 million.

Its projections seems to be consistent with the cautious numbers offered by rivals such as Cisco (CSCO - Get Report) and Juniper (JNPR - Get Report).

But unlike Ciena, they are bigger, profitable and yet seem more agile. Also different is that they have shown an ability to maneuver and adjust more easily. This is despite intense competition and weaker demand which has hurt their performance.

Moving Forward

With these concerns in mind, Ciena's investment worthiness at this point is just not there. This is even though it's valued at $1.3 billion and trading at less than annual revenue suggesting that the stock might be cheap by many standards.
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CMCSA $60.53 -1.00%
CIEN $16.68 0.30%
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