The polarization here is striking. Money seems to be betting that the fear premium in oil may be unjustified, as Israel's stocks rise at the same time energy stocks fall. If you believe somewhat in the "wisdom of crowds," this may be a very important tell about how markets are viewing the prospects for an oil spike.
India and China
Other noticeable areas here worth focusing on? As the winner side, natural gas (UNG) continues to get a bid, and money has aggressively been put back to work in India following government reform measures taken by Prime Minister Singh. Both the stocks side (EPI) and currency side (ICN) saw strong gains in the past rolling month.
This, in turn, may explain why gold miners (GDX) are showing up on the list given the demand that comes from India for gold, particularly when the rupee strengthens.
Perhaps most surprising among the list of extreme losers is the number of Real Estate Investment Trusts that have exhibited weakness, despite the
QE3 program, which one would think would benefit real estate stocks on targeting mortgage rates. It remains to be seen what might be causing this weakness, but I suspect its a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of reaction to prices.
Putting it all Together
The most interesting price action from this week's extreme movers message is the behavior of Israel and oil, which is sending a clear message to not worry about a coming Middle East conflict.
Rather than trading on that for the long side, it looks like India and gold may be breakout candidates. For those using a potential Middle East strike as a reason to be bearish, it might be worth re-considering that idea in the face of very recent price movement.
At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.