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Will the Oils-Energy Sector Catch QE Fatigue?

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- There continues to be a divergence between Nymex crude oil and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which ended September with a positive but overbought weekly chart profile while crude oil ended the third quarter with a negative weekly chart profile.

Fundamentally shows the oils-energy sector only 3.7% overvalued with 11 of the remaining 15 sectors more overvalued. The fundamental divergence is the fact that all of the top 11 components of the XLE have had buy ratings according to ValuEngine at least since Aug. 1.

Even with buy ratings, six of the energy stocks I am profiling today are undervalued while the other five are overvalued. My investment theme for these stocks is to use my "buy and trade" strategy to reduce holdings in the oils-energy sector overall, but maintain core holdings.

In a speech in Indianapolis on Monday Fed Chief Bernanke defended FOMC monetary policy actions including the extended period of low interest rates and the three quantitative easing programs. In my judgment these moves hurt the Main Street economy, which depends upon interest income for savors and low gasoline prices for citizens and merchants.

I discussed all of this on Sept. 14 in Bernanke Does the Expected and Then Some. The bottom line is without the commodity speculation caused by monetary policy, gasoline prices might be at $1.50 a gallon, which would have gone a long way to generate economic growth on Main Street.

With monetary policy causing speculation in crude oil, much of the strength in some energy stocks can also be attributed speculation due to monetary policy.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

The daily chart for crude oil ($92.34) above shows the commodity below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $93.55 and $96.23, which is a sign that oil prices have risk to the downside. My semiannual value level lags at $76.71 with a new monthly pivot at $91.34 and weekly and annual risky levels at $98.53 and $103.58. We have stability as long as weekly closes are above $91.34.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

The daily chart for XLE ($73.80) shows the ETF above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $72.14 and $70.10 providing the technical divergence versus crude oil. My semiannual value level is $47.34 with a monthly pivot at $70.63 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at $76.23 and $85.27. We have stability as long as XLE has weekly closes above the monthly pivot at $70.63.

My Changing Opinion

Back on Aug. 1 I wrote Trading the Undervalued Energy Sector stating that QE3 would help the energy sector.

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COP $53.48 0.00%
CVX $90.37 0.00%
EOG $82.02 0.00%
HAL $39.13 0.00%
XLE $67.77 0.00%


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