NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Much of the stock market rally since early June has been in anticipation that the Federal Reserve would implement QE3, and the central bank did so on Sept. 12.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on additional gains for only two more days after that and has since trended sideways to down as weaker-than-expected economic data and earnings warnings have pricked the hype of QE euphoria.
I began to worry about what I describe as "QE fatigue" on Sept. 21 when I wrote "QE Fatigue Plagues Transports, May Be Contagious," and at the end of the third quarter, the Dow Transportation Average was down 2.5% for the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10.0%.
On Sept. 28 I wrote "QE Fatigue Spreads from Transports to Semiconductors" and illustrated how the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) broke below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages and ended September with a negative weekly chart profile. The SOX ended the third quarter up just 4.9% for the year, while the Nasdaq was up 19.6%.Today I will show that QE fatigue could now be spreading into the industrial products sector. Last week Caterpillar (CAT) cut earnings expectations through 2015. Last Thursday the final reading for second-quarter GDP came in at 1.3%, below the advanced and preliminary readings at 1.7%. Durables goods orders were down 13.2% in August, and the Chicago ISM is now just below 50. These data are symptoms that the industrial product sector is catching QE fatigue. At www.ValuEngine.com we show the industrial products sector 4.0% overvalued, and that there are 10 sectors that are even more overvalued. If you focus on the technicals, however, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will have a negative weekly chart profile given a close last week below the five-week modified moving average at $36.67. Given this close, momentum will be declining from overbought territory with risk to the 200-week simple moving average at $30.74, which came into play a year ago. This is a technical warning of QE fatigue. The daily chart for XLI ($36.53) shows a trading range for 2012 with highs at $38.17 on March 15 and at $38.07 on Sept. 14, and a low at $33.08 on June 4. The daily chart is technically negative with declining momentum and closes below the 21-day simple moving average at $36.87. A close below the 50-day moving average at $36.48 indicates risk to the 200-day moving average at $36.00. My semiannual value level lags at $27.72 with a monthly pivot at $36.50, and annual and quarterly risky levels at $37.74 and $39.58, respectively.
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