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5 Big Bank Stocks to Avoid From JMP

Stocks in this article: BAC C JPM GS MS

4.Morgan Stanley (MS)

Core EPS Forecast: $0.17 vs $0.27 consensus

Outlook: Underperform

"Our target implied P/TBV of 0.4x seems very cheap, but GAAP results are losses, there is a low margin of profit error even on a core basis, and ROEs are likely to remain quite weak."

3. JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Core EPS Forecast: $1.02 vs $1.17 consensus

Outlook: Underperform

For years, we have been cautious on the universal banking model, thanks to consumer finance regulations, Basel III, and the continued mortgage mess. Now we add the current EU crisis (which we expect to get materially worse) and future consternation over U.S. fiscal cliff impacts. Finally, JPM's CIO story has Washington up in arms, which means Volcker will likely be implemented more harshly." He added that the stock appears "overbought".

2.Citigroup (C)

Core EPS Forecast: $0.89 vs $0.98 consensus

Outlook: Underperform

"The good news is that Citi has a nice international franchise, particularly in fast growing markets, while the bad news is it continues to hold a large legacy asset portfolio. We expect bulge earnings and shares to be sluggish (or worse) for most of the balance of the year."

1.Bank of America (BAC)

Core EPS Forecast: $0.11 vs $0.14 consensus

Outlook: Underperform

"Previously, we were cautious on BAC shares, reflecting substantial risk that mortgage put-backs end up far beyond the current reserve. And then there were allthe other issues, such as burdensome consumer finance regulations, a big increase in capital adequacy standards which hurts returns, and other (non-putback) mortgage mess costs. The EU crisis isn't likely to cause direct balance sheet losses, but the stock could fall in sympathy with others, while the U.S. fiscal cliff impacts loom."

--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York



>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Shanthi Bharatwaj.

>To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/shavenk.

>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors and reporters from holding positions in any individual stocks.
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