This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
$1 buys you full access to ALL of TheStreet's Subscription Services! Learn More

Battleground Economics: Do Swing-state Conditions Favor Obama Or Romney?

The real problem in Florida is credit scores, which have slipped more than the average U.S. score. Coupled with anemic wage growth in the state, that's two out of three factors in Romney's favor.

Iowa

Economic conditions are relatively strong in Iowa, though this state only has six electoral votes in play. Iowa's unemployment rate is much lower than the national average, and average salary growth since 2008 has been stronger than for the country as a whole. The only drawback is with regard to credit scores. While Iowa's median credit score is still higher than the national average, it has suffered a sharper decline since 2008.

Nevada

The biggest problem in Nevada is unemployment, which is much worse than the national average. Credit scores have also taken a beating, though surprisingly, wage growth has been relatively strong. All-in-all, that makes two out of three financial factors working against Obama's capturing Nevada's six electoral votes.

New Hampshire

Like Iowa, New Hampshire is blessed with relatively low unemployment. However, wage growth has been weak, and the median credit score has suffered a worse decline than the national average. Those factors could be tip the state's four electoral votes toward Romney.

Ohio

With 18 electoral votes, Ohio is one of the high-stakes battleground states. Unemployment is not only below the national average, but it has actually declined since 2008. Unfortunately for the President, wage growth has been below par, and the median credit score has seen a bigger-than-average drop.

Virginia

Virginia offers 13 electoral votes, and that might be a lucky number for Obama, because this state seems the strongest economically of all the battleground states. Unemployment is low and wage growth has been high. Perhaps thanks to those factors, the median credit score has held up better in Virginia than in any of the other battleground states.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin's unemployment rate is a bit lower than the national average, but that's the only positive factor here. Wage growth has been below average, and credit scores have suffered a bigger-than-average decline. Those negatives could help nudge the state's 10 electoral votes in Romney's direction.

Voting with their wallets

Again, a multitude of factors decide presidential elections -- even ones that focus largely on economic issues, as the 2012 contest has. But if people were to vote strictly according to their wallets in 2012, this analysis indicates that these battleground states would deliver 76 electoral votes to Romney and 19 to Obama.

2 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!

Markets

DOW 17,814.94 -2.96 -0.02%
S&P 500 2,067.03 -2.38 -0.12%
NASDAQ 4,758.2520 +3.36 0.07%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs