Can Amazon continue to grow and, more importantly, is Amazon a buy with its current 300+ PE ratio? Of course not: As Amazon's sales and revenue grow, they will increasingly run into Apple, Google, Target, Wal-Mart and others who will push back. If Amazon is able to grow its razor- thin margins, you can bet others that are much bigger and have the capability to dominate will emulate the model. Playing the game of ignoring the landscape where competitors include Wal-Mart, eBay, Target and many others is full of peril.
It's a no-win situation for Amazon's shareholders, and if they refuse to acknowledge the gravity of the situation, at least protect yourself from a catastrophic loss. You can do so in several ways. A common method is through "portfolio insurance" or buying put options.
The Amazon November $200 Strike puts can be bought for about $1.15 each. For about the price of a dollar menu item plus tax, you can ensure that you will cap your potential downside, and anything under $200 doesn't result in further losses.
A January $190 put will cost you about two dollar menu items including tax. If you think Amazon trading $190 can't happen, keep in mind that at $190, Amazon will still be more expensive than Google, Wal-Mart, Target, or Apple on an earnings basis.I use a proprietary blend of technical analysis, financial crowd behavior and fundamentals in my short-term trades, and while not totally the same in longer swing trades to investments, the concepts used are similar. You may want to use this article as a starting point of your own research with your financial planner. At the time of publication the author had no holdings in any stock mentioned. This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV