Another drawback of the offering is the escalating drug violence in Mexico. For now, the violence is centered in the northern part of the country, but the killings are grisly and numerous. Should the violence spill beyond the drug traffickers, it could hurt the economy. For now though, tourism is up 5% in 2012 despite the warnings from U.S. officials.
The deal will be dual-listed with 20% in Mexico and 80% in the U.S. The shares will be priced between $10.99 and $12.70 and it is planned to trade on Sept. 26.
Krapfel believes if the bank manages its operating costs and doesn't pursue risky loans , it could surprise on the upside. The one wild card is the parent. If Santander Spain needs even more money during this financial crisis, it could dip back into the Santander Mexican stock and pour itself some additional capital.
-- Written by Debra Borchardt in New York.