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$15 Facebook: Merry Christmas, Baby

Mobility -- it's the keyword here. And Barron's doesn't get it.

Mobility in the workforce. And the epic migration from desktop to mobile in social and new media.

Today's worker, particularly in tech and related sectors, doesn't take a gig with a company, stay there 35 years, collect a pension and live on a fixed income in retirement. In this world of LinkedIn profiles and hyper-networking, folks in tech are always looking for a job even if they're not.

It's so competitive that companies such as Facebook -- likely a popular target for headhunters -- have no choice but to get aggressive -- and creative -- with compensation. There's no better way to entice people than with stock. They're not sticking around for the free lunches, 401K and San Francisco rent control. That stuff means nothing to cats making $80,000 (or more) plus options straight out of college.

It's so much more complex than the Barron's article makes it out to be. They paint Facebook as irresponsible, yet make no mention of the type of talented high-demand worker they must attract and maintain. Of course, when an executive or other key employees leave, the bears squawk. It's a contradiction these bears are likely not even conscious of.

To dog Facebook for its slow mobile transition shows a profound ignorance. I would love to waste two years and still be (according to eMarketer :
  • Sixth in 2012 mobile ad revenue, slightly behind Apple.
  • Projected to catapult to second, between Google and Pandora (P - Get Report) in 2013 and 2014.

A company that has self-admittedly neglected mobile ranks behind only five others in ad revenue. Logic tells me that with a massive user base and a new focus on mobile throughout the organization, Facebook's mobile revenues have nowhere to go but up.

Does Barron's really expect advertisers to shun the social platform that serves a billion users around the world? Does the publication believe advertisers will not go where their prospective customers are? Do they think Mark Zuckerberg and the people Facebook hires are complete and total idiots?

Facebook might be setting up the ultimate bear trap. While you can spin its policy of not giving guidance as a negative, it might turn into a positive for longs. When mobile gains traction, it will seemingly come out of nowhere. That's a bear trap in the making.

While the stock could dip on the noise Barron's creates and insider selling, instead of a $15 stock price, I anticipate around $15 worth of upside as Facebook's mobile strategies continue to take shape into 2013.

At the time of publication, the author was long FB and P.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Rocco Pendola is a private investor with nearly 20 years experience in various forms of media, ranging from radio to print. His work has appeared in academic journals as well as dozens of online and offline publications. He uses his broad experience to help inform his coverage of the stock market, primarily in the technology, Internet and new media spaces. He has taken a long-term approach to investing, focusing on dividend-paying stocks, since he opened his first account as a teenager. Pendola, 37, is based in Santa Monica, Calif., where he lives with his wife and child.
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