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The Best of Kass

That's stagflation.

Meanwhile FedEx's CEO seems to agree with me that China is the canary in the coal mine. He said in the release, "The locomotive that has driven China's growth is its export industry" but the situation in Europe, as well as tepid growth in the U.S., is sapping steam from it.

According to Smith, demand from Chinese consumers "is not increasing at a significant rate, contrary to everybody's hopes" and he is "somewhat amused" by observers of China who "completely underestimate" the impact of China's export slowdown.

At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in securities mentioned.


Optimistic on Oaktree
Originally published on Friday, Sept. 21 at 8:37 a.m. EDT.

  • Oaktree's defensive approach to investing seems ideal for the investment challenges ahead.
  • My view continues to be that Oaktree's (OAK) shares are cheap relative to other financials and to the broader market. Moreover, in the rough market terrain I see ahead, Oaktree's defensive and preservation-of-capital approach to investing seems to ideally position the asset manager for the investment challenges ahead.

    Oaktree is my second-largest long, behind AIG (AIG), reflecting its superior management team and excellence in investment management.

    Below is Citigroup's take on Oaktree (reiterates Overweight) from this morning:

    "Recent meetings with Oaktree management reiterate our belief that its distressed funds are operating in a strong realization environment, paving the way for Opps VIIb to pay carry in 2Q13. While current fundraising efforts are below the 07/08 peak and AuM growth near-term could lag some peers -- an area of investor concern -- Matt sees newer efforts such as real estate beginning to pick up steam and potential upside if distressed conditions become more prevalent."

    At the time of publication, Kass was long OAK and AIG common; short AIG puts.

    Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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