I'm going to address two markets and three possible trades:
December live cattle
- live cattle;
- lean hogs; and
- spreading the two against one another.
: After a 6.5% appreciation this summer it appears that live cattle reached an interim top in recent dealings, as prices have started to roll over. Prices are now under their 20-day mobbing average and headed lower. I've suggested bearish exposure and would use the Fibonacci levels as exit targets.
December lean hogs
: Lean hogs have slid dramatically. Prices from the year's high to the year's low have dropped nearly 20%. Strong support exists at $0.70, as prices were unable to penetrate that level after several attempts. I'd suggest buying dips that hold $0.71 in December, trying to capitalize on an appreciation in the coming weeks. Similar to cattle, use the Fibonacci levels as exit targets.
December spread -- buying lean hogs, selling live cattle 1:1
: This cannot be viewed as one trade but rather two separate trades. This is a recognizable spread by the exchange, so the margins are less. Understand, however, that if you're wrong on both, you lose, or if you're more wrong than you're right on one product, you lose. Because both contracts are the same size, 40,000 lbs., every penny will make or lose $400 on the individual trades as well as the spread. I'd be willing to risk to the recent lows with a target of $0.48. Risk vs. reward is not much better than 1:1. Monitor the spread, but I think one is better off managing the individual trades.
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