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Kass: Camp Romney Is Chaos

This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:31 a.m. EDT on Sept. 18.

NEW YORK ( Real Money) -- I want to start today's missive by emphasizing that my remarks are not politically motivated.

I have repeatedly written that I try not to introduce my personal views into my columns, and that importantly includes my political beliefs. I don't think anyone should care about my (or any talking head's) political views.

My remarks are solely intended to state the emerging trends (in the polls and elsewhere) as they relate to the possible outcome of the presidential election, as the outcome of the November election will weigh mightily on the U.S. stock market.

It is generally assumed by a majority of investors that a Republican presidential win is more market- and business-friendly than a Democratic presidential win.

There are only about 50 days left for the presidential campaigns, and, regardless of one's political views, as we move closer to the first week of November, time brings greater clarity as to who will win the election.

It is generally recognized that the Romney campaign is now in trouble.

His campaign has seemingly been on the back foot since his acceptance at the Republican National Convention. Even my friend/buddy/pal Larry Kudlow seemed depressed last night as he emphasized the need for more substance and policy in the Romney dialogue.

  • Obama's lead on Intrade has expanded to a multi-month high of 67.5%.
  • Obama is leading in nearly every national poll now (with the exception of Rasmussen).
  • Obama's lead is widening in the important battleground states.

This Politico column outlines Romney's growing campaign problems.

It is hard to know the cause of Romney's weak showing of late. It's probably a combination of Obama's strength off of the Democratic National Convention (or perceived weakness of the Republican National Convention), the near five-year high in the S&P 500, the lack of imagination and injection of big-picture ideas out of the Romney campaign and/or dissatisfaction with the general direction of Romney campaign manager Stuart Stevens.

Already, similar to the McCain campaign, there is talk of a shakeup in the Romney campaign organization.

How much of a possible Obama win has been discounted? There is no way of telling for sure.

But, to most observers, a Democratic presidential victory in November will not be market- or business-friendly.

In a market that has dismissed the cautionary signals of QE3 slowing corporate profits, a deceleration in the rate of global manufacturing activity and rising geopolitical risks, the growing possibility of a Democratic presidential election win looms larger on the liability side of the stock market's balance sheet.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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