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The Best of Kass

Stocks in this article: AXP TLT

Time will tell.

I believe memories are short, and I remain short the market.

At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in securities mentioned.

AmEx Shares Continue Their Slump
Originally published on Thursday, Sept. 13 at 12:02 p.m. EDT.

  • I remain short.
  • Of all the financials I monitor, American Express's (AXP) shares have been among the worst performing.

    I remain short based on my expectations that billings will disappoint in the current quarter and in the second half, as the European and Chinese economies and faltering high-end spending weigh on the company.

    At the time of publication, Kass was short AXP.

    The Winter of Love
    Originally published on Wednesday, Sept. 12 at 4:25 p.m. EDT.

  • Could the tide be turning for TLT shorts?
  • The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) shorts did not experience a summer of love, but is winter is shaping up to be a different story? This has been a tough nut to crack lately on both sides of the playing field. The bulls finally yielded today in the fight between the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern vs. the bullish cup-and-handle pattern. Kind of like TLT's own version of Thunderdome. Two patterns enter, one pattern leaves.

    The drop today pushes TLT below the handle portion of the cup-and-handle pattern, which was the bulls' strongest technical argument. I was long a few useless call spreads from last go around, which has been stopped out, but the $127 straddles have now begun to work.

    Remember last time, I was looking for the bounce off the horizontal blue line for a short entry, and that was a point of short coverage. This time, we are testing from a much lower level, a failed bullish technical pattern, a stochastics that is not yet oversold and a stronger setup for the bearish head and shoulders. Basically, I don't think the bulls bounce on the blue line this time around. This is the line in the sand for me on TLT. A break there puts $114 into play by the first quarter of 2013, if not the end of the year.

    If you are short, then the horizontal green line, which was previous support, becomes your alert level. I would set stops just above this level or an alert at that price.

    At the time of publication, Kass was long TLT straddles.

    Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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