How to Play It: Betting on a Weaker Euro
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Wow -- that's all I can say.
Sometimes I'm amazed at investors' gullibility. I, too, listened to Mario Draghi's comments last week, and although it seems the European Central Bank has finally come out with the bazooka expected for two years, I can't help but remain skeptical that the eurozone has the wherewithal or the means to follow through on its plans.
Let's not forget that, when one looks at the fine print contained in Draghi's plan, countries must request aid and submit to severe austerity measures to keep their borrowing costs reasonable. (If you consider 5% to 6% on a 10-year note reasonable.)
In addition, the German court will rule this week on whether to suspend the 500 billion-euro European Stability Mechanism. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has consistently opposed the idea of bond purchases, which he calls "tantamount to financing governments by printing bank notes."Let's think about this for a minute. The economic driver of the EU is Germany, and Germany is clearly not happy with the situation. Who would be, after all? Why has the German taxpayer become responsible for countries that have clearly not taken care of their finances with the care and thoughtfulness that Germany has? We have seen how well austerity measures are working in Greece. If that is an indication of things to come, then buckle your seatbelts. The bottom line is this: There is only so much the ECB can do. Without fiscal responsibility on the part of member governments, the euro is doomed. It may not be tomorrow, or next week, or next year. Bond purchases may have bought the union time, but they will not solve the crises. That being said, I will still be looking for opportunities to short the euro. The dollar index is in deep support on a weekly chart, thus far holding at the 50-week moving average. I believe that at this point that QE3 is probably baked into the cake. With additional negative headlines out of the eurozone, or additional slowing in China, we could see the greenback bounce from these levels and drive the euro lower. In addition, at the 1.30 level, the euro will run into substantial resistance along with the 50-week moving average. And let's not forget that the trend on the monthly chart is still decidedly down. Here is one way to play a potential downside reversal in the Eurocurrency futures: As always, if futures are not your thing, feel free to email me to discuss alternative ways of placing bearish bets on the euro. Sell 1 December Eurocurrency future at 1.30 or better good until canceled. Place a protective stop at 1.3150 good until canceled. Target 1.25 or lower. Stop may be trailed based on an individual's risk tolerance and money management preferences. Risk on trade: As stated above, $1,920 including a $45 R/T commission inclusive of all fees. Profit potential: theoretically unlimited down to zero. If target stated above is reached, profit would be $6,205 after subtracting a $45 R/T commission inclusive of all fees. Please note: Futures and options trading is inherently risky and isn't suitable for all investors. Past performance isn't indicative of future results. Stop-loss orders meant to limit losses may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.
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