NEW YORK (
) -- It was one year ago last week, on Sept. 6, 2011, when the price of Comex gold traded as high as $1923.7 a Troy ounce, an all-time high.
I described the quick decline to $1535.0 on Sept. 26 and the subsequent low of $1523.9 on Dec. 29 as the popping of the gold bubble.
As 2012 began, the gold bubble tried to reinflate, but the high on Feb. 28 at $1792.7 was followed by a steady decline to $1526.7 the Troy ounce on May 16. On that day I wrote "
It's Time to Buy Gold for a Trade
On June 6 I wrote "
Gold, Oil in Sync to Rally Now and Sink Later
" and explained the importance of my annual pivot at $1575.8.
As that level continued to be a magnet into June 29, I wrote "
Downside Risks for Gold, Oil and Stocks
," where I explained the "sink later" scenario but stated that the upside first would not take gold to a new all-time high.
In July my coverage of Comex gold was in my Friday posts covering the U.S. capital markets. On the first three Fridays in July, gold closed the week above my annual pivot at $1575.8, which continued the "upside first" for gold as speculation in anticipation of QE3 began to pick up. Gold has been above my annual pivot since July 25, which targeted my semiannual levels at $1643.3 and then $1702.5.
On Aug. 23 I wrote "
Gold Stocks Lag the Breakout in Gold Prices
" as gold opened both above my semiannual pivot at $1643.3 and the 200-day simple moving average at $1649.2 on that day. In that article I profiled six gold mining stocks with the logic that if the gold rally continued gold shares would rise toward their 200-day simple moving averages.
Today I will update my profiles for these six gold stocks.
Since Aug. 23, Comex gold has been above its 200-day simple moving average and my semiannual pivot at $1643.3 as shown in the daily chart below. This technical breakout targeted my second semiannual risky level, now a pivot at $1702.5.