NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
Among his posts this past week, Kass wrote about why more quantitative easing is a close call, fundamental reasons why the market has risen too high, and why Chinese stock valuations may be a harbinger of our own market.
Originally published on Friday, Sept. 7 at 1:49 p.m. EDT. As I expressed recently, I expect the Fed to change the language with regard to how long low rates will be in place from late 2014 to late 2015. I think it is a close call, however, on more quantitative easing. The odds are probably 50/50, which is far less, I believe, than consensus now (particularly in light of the poor jobs report this morning). At any rate, I believe that more cowbell has been already discounted in the markets. The case against more quantitative easing includes:
Originally published on Thursday, Sept. 6 at 11:47 a.m. EDT.
- President Obama seems likely to win the November election. (He has risen to a multiyear high of 58.8% on Intrade). A Democrat win will be seen as business- and market-unfriendly.
- Third-quarter 2012 earnings will be challenging -- guidance has been cautious -- and profits will likely decline for the first time (year over year) since third quarter 2009.
- I remain uncertain about the U.S. fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, dividend, capital gains and tax policy.
- I remain uncertain about the eurozone's economy, banking union and fiscal integration.
- A Chinese economic slowdown not only threatens world economic growth and commodity prices but implies less demand for the purchase of U.S. treasuries.
- A broad deceleration in global manufacturing activity will adversely impact U.S. export growth.
As China Goes, so Goes the U.S.?
Originally published on Thursday, Sept. 5 at 8:37 a.m. EDT.