We continue to tweak this. There’s a couple of things I think that we lose sight of, is that 2011, the freight rates were very, very low. 2012, the industry particularly the beginning of the year got general rate increases.
So when you look at the first six months of 2011 versus the first six months of 2012, the freight rates are actually 12% – are 20% higher, all in. What you do see lately is some deterioration, some of that trading back at the same time, the leader in the industry Myers, again announcing another general rate increase.
So I think when we look at the overall industry, we’re going to see better freight rates in 2012 than in 2011 and we did see that in the second quarter numbers for all the shipping companies, they had better numbers in the second quarter then the first quarter. I think we’ll see decent numbers from that in the third quarter.
Fuel continues to bounce around. It looks like there’s a trend where lower bunker fuel is going to help them. I think it’s probably going to be net-net neutral. The other thing that you lose – sometimes you lose sight of, is the fact that the shipping companies have been focused on cost reduction in all of 2011 continuing 2012.So they in general, have taken out a fairly significant amount of cost on their structure. We certainly like our customers to do well, but at the same time, being in the business of lending them capital, we also want them to borrow money from us. And so we really are focused more on them, have enough money to pay us but not so much money that they don’t need us. On the last bullet here is Canadian shipping companies can rely on us and we think that’s going to continue to be a trend. On the manufacturing, on the supply side, the important thing to know about the supply side is that manufacturers only build to demands. So there’s not a lot of speculative inventory overhang. And in fact, to some degree, the manufacturers will produce the, in a tight demand market because it helps their pricings. Read the rest of this transcript for free on seekingalpha.com
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