At the moment, at least, the expectations are pretty straightforward. The commodity uptrend/dollar downtrend is rooted in a conviction the Federal Reserve will create more of the world's currency in yet another quantitative easing endeavor. Indeed, it is a reasonable expectation to believe that the dollar could depreciate and commodities could appreciate if there is an aggressive Fed move to enact QE3 policy.
Before betting against the greenback or allocating a large amount in commodity ETFs, however, one should pay some attention to the other school of thought. In particular, there are those who believe that further deterioration of the euro and euro zone are inevitable.
Naturally, if there is a shock to the global system, panic has historically resulted in safe-haven, almighty-buck buying. So if you're gearing up to purchase a commodity ETF, be certain that you have an exit strategy to minimize the risk of the market moving against you.
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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