While Spain is much more TBTF than Greece, the burden on Germany is also proportionally greater. It could very well embolden the German opposition, and/or force Merkel's increasingly fractured coalition to shift toward the hawks. Since the risks in Spain are well known, such bluffing is self-serving in its narrowest sense and I suspect this will not bode well with other eurozone members.
To summarize, if the Draghi announcement disappoints, it'd be full-throttle risk-off. Even if it's positive, reality will set in after the initial euphoria fades. It's rational to get cold feet on Wednesday.
The "long stocks, long gold, long euro, short USD" trade has become so crowded it makes me nervous. So, if you haven't gotten the memo yet, I would not suggest chasing now; if you're lucky enough to be sitting on some profit, it might be a good idea to take some chips off the table.
At the time of publication, the author was long gold.This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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