China’s economy continues to decelerate. Demand for electricity is up 3 percent in May of 2012, compared to a growth rate of 10 to 11 percent a year ago. In addition to the effect of a slowing economy, recovery in hydropower generation has further reduced coal demand. Coal production in China has continued to increase as demand has slowed, further depressing prices. As prices dropped below $100 per tonne, imported coal gained an advantage over domestic production, and stockpiles at the domestic transfer point of Qinhuangdao increased and approached capacity. Higher cost domestic production was subsequently reduced and Beijing further mandated that domestic coal production be limited to 7 percent above 2011 levels. The month of July saw power demand rise 15 percent from June levels and 7 percent from last year. As a result, Qinhuangdao inventories have declined by 25 percent since early July, and seaborne prices have begun to recover.Power generation in India is up 11 percent this year, while thermal coal imports are up 13 percent. Domestic production grew only 2.6 percent last year and it continues to fall well short of plan, putting more pressure on imports. The thinness of supply-demand was evidenced by a recent brownout that affected 600 million people, and many power plants continue to run with stockpiles of a week or less. In addition, India plans to add 97 gigawatts of coal-fired power generation over the next three to four years, requiring an additional 300 million tonnes of coal. As a result, India’s coal demand will continue to be a main driver in the seaborne market.
Joy Global Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2012 Operating Results
Check Out Our Best Services for Investors
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Model portfolio
- Stocks trading below $10
- Intraday trade alerts
Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutinyquantitative, fundamental and technical analysisto maximize profit potential and minimize risk.
Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.