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The Best of Kass

At the time of publication, Kass was short SPY and TLT, and long TBT common and calls.

More Fast Times at 'Fast Money' High
Originally published on Wednesday, Aug. 15 at 7:45 a.m. EDT.
Linda Barrett: "Did you hear that surfer guy pulled a knife on Mr. Hand?"
Stacy Hamilton: "No he didn't. He just called him a dick."
Linda Barrett: "People exaggerate so much around here."
-- Fast Times at Ridgemont High

Let's go directly to the video tape.

It was a fun time with Judge Wapner and the CNBC "Fast Money Halftime" gang yesterday.

The subject of my segment was, as discussed in Tuesday's opening missive, the possibility that the S&P 500 was tracing the dreaded triple top.

I started by saying that it was fun being together again with Weissy, BK, Guy "Spicoli" Adami and "Downtown" Josh Brown.

I was particularly excited to be on with John Taylor, Halftime's guest host, who changed the face of musical history when he reunited with his group, Duran Duran, back in 2001! (I don't think too many got my joke!)

Judge asked me why we should be worried when the S&P was on the cusp of a four-year high.

I cited both technical and fundamental reasons.

First, the S&P appeared to be making a triple top as it is now approaching the highs of early April and May. The triple top is scary to those who are technically inclined, but not, perhaps, as scary as if Carrot Top was approaching Mr. Market!

Secondly, the stalling out and punk pin action of the Transportation index (IYT) and the Russell (IWM) are worrisome.

Thirdly, investment history shows that over time, buying equities when the VIX is below 15.0 rarely pays off.

But I hastened to add that fundamentals, not technical discovery or technical analysis, are my market weather vane, and on that front there are many reasons to be concerned.

The fundamental outlook is stormy, with slowing global growth being ignored in favor of the hopium of more Band-Aid monetary policy initiatives. The global monetary put might be overstated as the impact of easing is waning in its impact. Importantly, since June 1, 52% of the incoming domestic economic data were worse than expected, 11% were in line and 37% were ahead of consensus.

The subject du jour, of course, was Paul Ryan's appointment by Governor Romney as his vice presidential ticket mate.

I made the case that the Ryan decision, the growing economic ambiguity around the world and other factors could produce near-term market pressures.

Judge asked me what the market downside might be. I suggested that, unlike the summers of 2010 and 2011 when I went on "Fast Money" suggesting that the lows of the year might be made on the S&P, I interpret the conditions in the summer of 2012 differently. To me, a yearly high might be put in place in August. In response to another question, I thought a move to 1300-1320 in the S&P was a possibility in the correction I foresaw in the months ahead.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
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