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TheStreet Open House

Gold Miners Disappoint, but Not for Long

Stocks in this article: GLD GDX AEM NEM

NEW YORK ( www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com) -- It is an endless debate for investors interested in gold: Should they buy a direct play on the gold price, either gold bullion itself or even so-called paper gold with an ETF such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)? Or should they invest into gold equities, particularly the larger, higher quality gold mining companies?

Recent history suggests the answer is gold itself. According to Citigroup, physical gold has outperformed global gold equities 120% of the time over the past five years. Stocks of the bigger gold mining firms seem to react adversely to bad news (which is normal), but the problem is they react with no more than a yawn to good news. These type of stocks are contained in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

Evidence of this trend can been see in the latest news to hit the industry: the slowdown in expansion as recently signaled by the world's largest gold producer, Barrick Gold (ABX). The company's stock has fallen by more than 30% over the last year due to cost overruns at major projects.

The latest blowup in costs of up to $3 billion occurred in its estimate for development of its flagship Pascua-Lama project on the border of Chile and Argentina. The project may now cost up to $8 billion.

In addition, Barrick decided to shelve the $6 billion Cerro Casale in Chile and the $6.7 billion Donlin Gold project in Alaska. Barrick is not alone in its thinking among the major gold producers. The CEO of Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Sean Boyd, recently said "The era of gold mega-projects may be fading. The industry is moving into an era of cash flow generation, yields and capital discipline."

Fair enough. But are gold mining companies' management walking the walk about yields or just talking the talk? Last year, many of the larger miners made major announcements that they would be focusing on boosting their dividends in attempt to attract new stockholders away from exchange-traded vehicles such as GLD, which have siphoned demand away from gold equities.

Barrick, for example, boosted its dividend payout by a quarter from the previous level. Newmont Mining (NEM), which has also cut back on expansion plans, has pledged to link its dividend payout to the price of gold bullion.

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