What Paul Ryan Means for Your Stock Portfolio
Given such a tenuous set of causal links, there is no reason at all to have any confidence that the candidate Ryan will have any predictable effect on the market one week or one year from now.
But just for the sake of argument, let's ignore all of those conceptual problems, and look at the empirical data. The claim, again, is that because Romney is ``pro-growth,'' higher polling numbers should cause investors to raise equity valuations. Wesbury pointed to this as a week-by-week relationship. In the attached chart, we've plotted the weekly change in Romney's electoral chances as tracked by the 2012.PRES.ROMNEY contract at Intrade against the weekly lagged S&P 500 returns. If a boost for Romney in the polls this week can predictably cause a rally in the market next week, there should be a discernible relationship among these data. But as you might have expected, a regression on this series shows no statistically meaningful relationship whatsoever (r^2 = 0.029).
So what does Paul Ryan mean for your stock portfolio? The same thing that most other events in the electoral cycle mean for your portfolio: nothing.
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