(C - Get Report)
closed at $28.90 Friday, returning 10% year-to-date, following a 44% decline during 2011.
The shares trade for 0.6 times tangible book value, and for 6.4 times the consensus 2013 EPS estimate of $4.54. The consensus 2012 EPS estimate is $4.09.
For very patient investors, Citigroup could turn into a capital return story. The company reported in its second-quarter 10-Q filing on August 3 that it had "$51 billion of net deferred tax assets at June 30, 2012," and that "approximately $11 billion of such assets were includable without limitation in regulatory capital pursuant to risk-based capital guidelines, while approximately $35 billion of such assets exceeded the limitation imposed by these guidelines and, as 'disallowed deferred tax assets,' were deducted in arriving at Tier 1 Capital."
As Citigroup continues to turn profits and winds down its Citi Holdings Subsidiary, there's quite a bit of potential for excess capital to be returned to investors.
Atlantic Equities analyst Richard Staite had said on July 17 that "given that Citigroup has $151bn of tangible common equity but only needs $88bn to run Citicorp it shows that there is a further $63bn that is currently trapped within Citi Holdings and the DTA."
"This is capital that should be available to be returned to shareholders at some point assuming the group can utilize the DTA and that the $10bn of loan loss reserves within Holdings is sufficient to cover losses," Staite said, adding that the "timing of the capital return is highly debatable and clearly the Fed took a cautious view early this year."
"Nevertheless," he said, "the fact that the Basel III [Tier 2 common equity] ratio has reached 7.9%, the same as JP Morgan bodes well for the start of a capital return in 2013."
Staite's price target for Citigroup's shares is $44.
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