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NEW YORK (
MBIA(MBI - Get Report) shares rose 13% Thursday following the company's second quarter earnings call, as analysts expressed confidence the company will avoid a chapter 11 filing, allowing it to survive long enough to reach an reap an estimated $2 billion dollar settlement with
Bank of America (BAC - Get Report) related to problem mortgage backed securities.
MBI CEO Jay Brown came out swinging on the company's conference call, accusing Bank of America of "obvious delaying tactics, which have lengthened the legal process beyond any reasonable expectation," and claims the bank owes MBIA more than $5 billion from mortgage backed securities it sold that were fraudulent or in some way did not meet the originally promised criteria at the time they were sold.
Bank of America spokespeople had no immediate response.
Analysts say the Bank of America case is the only thing that matters to MBIA investors.
"Most of the particulars of MBIA's operational results in a given quarter are important only insofar as they either directly or potentially impact the company's liquidity. As long as MBIA maintains a decent liquidity profile, investors can focus on handicapping the likelihood of a potential settlement with [Bank of America] and the upside that such an event would represent for the stock," wrote BTIG analyst Mark Palmer in a note published following MBIA's earnings conference call Thursday.
Analysts from Creditsights, meanwhile, made a similar argument in a separate report, arguing MBIA shares are "deeply undervalued," and should be worth $15.50 per share.
Also betting on MBIA is Morningstar Portfolio Manager of the Decade Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Funds, who described his bull case in a recent shareholder letter.
Written by Dan Freed in New York.
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