This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
$1 buys you full access to ALL of TheStreet's Subscription Services! Learn More

Moody’s Analytics US Macro Outlook: Economy Growing Slowly

Stocks in this article: MCO

Moody’s Analytics, a leading independent provider of economic forecasting, today released Chief Economist Mark Zandi’s U.S. economic outlook for August. According to “ U.S. Macro Outlook: Moving Forward, Slowly,” Zandi expects real GDP growth to remain near 2% and unemployment to remain higher than 8%. The risks to the outlook are decidedly to the downside and leave the odds of another recession at an uncomfortably high of 30%.

“It’s hard to see how job growth can gain traction or how unemployment can decline in earnest until the fiscal cliff and Euro area’s debt crisis are resolved,” said Zandi.

The economic outlook depends on a range of issues, including political efforts to lay out a credible tax and spending path to reduce the deficit and stabilize the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Zandi believes that once the fiscal cliff has been resolved, consumer confidence will revive and the economy’s prospects will brighten quickly.

“The expectation is that when pressured by the threat of another recession, policymakers will adequately respond, and by this time next year the nation will be more or less on a sustainable fiscal path,” Zandi added.

The report also notes that risks to the outlook will shift from positive to negative in the next nine months to a year. Zandi notes that the most surprising thing could be a boost from an upswing up in the construction cycle. Housing and commercial real estate have already begun to recover, and given current extraordinarily low levels of construction are expected to pick up significantly by mid‐decade. This will generate substantial job growth not only in the construction trades, but also in manufacturing, transportation and distribution, retailing and various consumer services.

For more information, visit Moody’s Analytics Dismal Scientist.

About Moody’s Analytics

Moody’s Analytics helps capital markets and risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. The company offers unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management. By providing leading-edge software, advisory services and research, including proprietary analyses from Moody’s Investors Service, Moody’s Analytics integrates and customizes its offerings to address specific business challenges. Moody's Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO), which reported revenue of $2.3 billion in 2011, employs approximately 6,500 people worldwide and has a presence in 28 countries. Further information is available at www.moodysanalytics.com.



1 of 2

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!

Markets

DOW 17,828.24 +0.49 0.00%
S&P 500 2,067.56 -5.27 -0.25%
NASDAQ 4,791.63 +4.3130 0.09%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs