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Book Profits in Overvalued Consumer Staples

Wal-Mart ($74.55) traded to a new all-time high of $75.24 on July 30. My monthly value level is $71.04 with a weekly risky level at $76.41. WMT reports quarterly results pre-market on August 16, and current earnings expectations are for $1.17 a share.

Altria ($35.92) traded to a new all-time high of $36.29 on August 1. My semiannual value level is $28.53 with a monthly pivot at $35.73 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $37.18 and $37.98.

Reynolds American ($46.61) traded to a new all-time high of $46.93 last Friday, Aug. 3. My monthly value level is $43.50 with a weekly risky level at $48.28.

Whole Foods Market ($94.60) traded to an all-time high of $97.25 on June 26. The stock fell to $81.55 into July 23 and traded as high as $95.98 Friday, giving investors a second chance to sell strength. My weekly and monthly risky levels are $100.09 and $100.37.

Monster Beverage ($66.78) traded to an all-time high of $83.96 on April 30. The stock fell to $61.72 into July 23, and last Friday's high was $66.96. My semiannual value level is $58.04 with a weekly pivot at $65.52 and quarterly risky level at $72.49. MNST reports quarterly results after the close on Aug. 8, and earnings are expected to be 62 cents a share.

Constellation Brands ($29.92) is trading up towards an all-time high of $31.60 set in June 2005. My monthly and annual value levels are $27.50 and $27.35 with a quarterly pivot at $28.23 and annual and weekly risky levels at $31.07 and $32.23.

To summarize, the XLP has had strong upward momentum that has led the index to become overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically. Given weak consumer confidence and flat personal spending, it is time to book profits in this sector.

At the time of publication, the author did not own any of the stocks in the table shown and held no positions in XLP.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Stock quotes in this article: XLP, KO, PG, WMT, MO 
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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