NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Among Republicans, it is an article of faith that high unemployment and voter disapproval of President Obama's handling of the economy should put Governor Mitt Romney in the White House. Unfortunately, Republicans fail to grasp that challengers must offer a compelling alternative to unseat an incumbent. Plus, other issues matter more to voters than party leaders care to recognize.
Romney's platform lays out detailed proposals to improve U.S. competitiveness, develop more domestic energy, streamline regulations and lower health costs, but those are too complex to capture voter attention.
On the stump, it's the usual Republican message -- lower taxes, deregulation and free trade. In Ronald Reagan's time, that was a winning strategy, but the country has changed.
African Americans and Hispanics are a growing share of registered voters, many with strong allegiance to progressive values and critical to the outcome in some swing states. The latter are frightened by many Republicans' views on immigration.
Republican opposition to abortion and guaranteed free access to women's health care services is easily cast by liberal talk show personalities as a Republican war on women.
According to most polls, President Obama is winning the popular vote by a small margin but more importantly, he is ahead in seven of eight battleground states still up for grabs.
Real Clear Politics' compilation of the various polls has President Obama ahead in 19 states and the District of Columbia -- together those would deliver 247 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Governor Romney is ahead in 23 states, garnering 191 electoral votes.
That leaves Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia to determine the election. President Obama leads in all those states, except North Carolina where Governor Romney's margin is less than 1%.
If Romney delivers a more convincing economic message and reassures seniors he will shore up Social Security and Medicare in ways that do not threaten them, he should snag the close states. In Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, President Obama currently enjoys a margin of less than 2%, and securing those would give Romney 241 electoral votes.