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Radian Reports Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results

All statements in this press release that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the United States (“U.S.”) Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In most cases, forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “goal,” “contemplate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “project,” “potential,” “continue,” or the negative or other variations on these words and other similar expressions. These statements, which may include, without limitation, projections regarding our future performance and financial condition, are made on the basis of management’s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking statements, as well as our prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements including:

  • Losses in our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses have reduced Radian Guaranty's statutory surplus and increased Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital ratio; additional losses in these businesses, without a corresponding increase in new capital or capital relief, would further negatively impact this ratio, which could limit Radian Guaranty's ability to write new insurance and increase restrictions and requirements placed on Radian Guaranty. We and our insurance subsidiaries are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by the insurance departments in the various states where our insurance subsidiaries are licensed to transact business. These regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders rather than for the benefit of investors. Insurance laws vary from state to state, but generally grant broad supervisory powers to state agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business, including the power to revoke or restrict an insurance company's ability to write new business.The GSEs and state insurance regulators impose various capital requirements on our insurance subsidiaries. These include risk-to-capital ratios, risk-based capital measures and surplus requirements that potentially limit the amount of insurance that each of our insurance subsidiaries may write. The GSEs and our insurance regulators possess significant discretion with respect to our insurance subsidiaries. Our failure to maintain adequate levels of capital, among other things, could lead to intervention by the various insurance regulatory authorities, which could materially and adversely affect our business, business prospects and financial condition.Under state insurance regulations, Radian Guaranty is required to maintain minimum surplus levels and, in certain states, a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the level of risk in force, or "risk-to-capital." Sixteen states (the risk-based capital or “RBC States”) currently impose a statutory or regulatory risk-based capital requirement (the “Statutory RBC Requirement”), the most common of which (imposed by 11 of the RBC States) is a requirement that a mortgage insurer's risk-to-capital ratio may not exceed 25 to 1. Unless an RBC State grants a waiver or other form of relief, if a mortgage insurer is not in compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirement of an RBC State, it may be prohibited from writing new mortgage insurance business in that state. Radian Guaranty's domiciliary state, Pennsylvania, is not one of the RBC States. For the full year 2011 and for the six months ended June 30, 2012, the RBC States accounted for approximately 50.5% and 54.8%, respectively, of Radian Guaranty's total primary new insurance written.As a result of ongoing incurred losses, Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital ratio has increased to 21.0 to 1 as of June 30, 2012. Based on our current projections, Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital ratio is expected to continue to increase and, absent any further capital contributions from Radian Group or other forms of capital relief such as reinsurance, is expected to exceed 25 to 1 in 2012. The ultimate amount of losses and the timing of these losses will depend, in part, on general economic conditions and other factors, including the health of credit markets, home prices and unemployment rates, all of which are difficult to predict and beyond our control.Our mortgage insurance incurred losses are driven primarily by new mortgage insurance defaults and adverse development in the assumptions used to determine our loss reserves. Establishing loss reserves in our businesses requires significant judgment by management with respect to the likelihood, magnitude and timing of anticipated losses. This judgment has been made more difficult in the current period of prolonged economic uncertainty. Our estimate of the percentage of defaults that ultimately will result in a paid claim (the “default to claim rate”) is a significant assumption in our reserving methodology. Our assumed aggregate weighted average default to claim rate (which incorporates the expected impact of rescissions and denials) was approximately 43% for the year ended December 31, 2011, and was 46% as of June 30, 2012. Assuming all other factors remain constant, for each 1% increase in our aggregate weighted average default to claim rate as of June 30, 2012, incurred losses would increase by approximately $58 million. Radian Guaranty's statutory capital would be reduced by the after-tax impact of these incurred losses. Our level of incurred losses is also dependent on our estimate of anticipated rescissions and denials, including our estimate of the number of successful challenges to previously rescinded policies or claim denials, among other assumptions. If the actual losses we ultimately realize are in excess of the loss estimates we use in establishing loss reserves, we may be required to take unexpected charges to income, which could adversely affect our statutory capital position and further increase Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital ratio.If Radian Guaranty is not in compliance with the applicable Statutory RBC Requirement in any RBC State, it may be prohibited from writing new business in that state until it is back in compliance or it receives a waiver of or similar relief from the requirement from the applicable state insurance regulator, as discussed in more detail below. In those states that do not have a Statutory RBC Requirement, it is not clear what actions the applicable state regulators would take if a mortgage insurer fails to meet the Statutory RBC Requirement established by another state. Accordingly, if Radian Guaranty fails to meet the Statutory RBC Requirement in one or more states, it could be required to suspend writing business in some or all of the states in which it does business. In addition, the GSEs and our mortgage lending customers may decide not to conduct new business with Radian Guaranty (or may reduce current business levels) or impose restrictions on Radian Guaranty while its risk-to-capital ratio remained at elevated levels. The franchise value of our mortgage insurance business would likely be significantly diminished if we were prohibited from writing new business or restricted in the amount of new business we could write in one or more states.Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position also is dependent on the performance of our financial guaranty portfolio. During the third quarter of 2008, we contributed our ownership interest in Radian Asset Assurance to Radian Guaranty. While this reorganization provided Radian Guaranty with substantial regulatory capital and dividends, it also makes the capital adequacy of our mortgage insurance business dependent, to a significant degree, on the successful run-off of our financial guaranty business. Any decrease in the capital support from our financial guaranty business would therefore have a negative impact on Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position and its ability to remain in compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirements. If the performance of our financial guaranty portfolio deteriorates materially, including if we are required to establish (or significantly increase) one or more significant statutory reserves on defaulted obligations that we insure, or if we make net commutation payments to terminate insured financial guaranty obligations in excess of the then established statutory reserves for such obligations, the statutory capital of Radian Guaranty also would be negatively impacted.We actively manage Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position in various ways, including: (1) through reinsurance arrangements; (2) by seeking opportunities to reduce our risk exposure through commutations or other negotiated transactions; (3) by contributing additional capital from Radian Group to our mortgage insurance subsidiaries; and (4) by monetizing gains in our investment portfolio through open market sales of securities. Radian Group had unrestricted cash and liquid investments of approximately $352.6 million as of June 30, 2012. We used an additional $11.5 million of our available liquidity in July and August 2012 to purchase $11.7 million in principal amount of our 2013 Notes. Our remaining available liquidity may be used to further support Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position. Depending on the extent of our future incurred losses, the amount of capital contributions required for Radian Guaranty to remain in compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirements could be substantial and could exceed amounts maintained at Radian Group.Our ability to continue to reduce Radian Guaranty's risk through affiliated reinsurance arrangements may be limited. These arrangements are subject to regulation by state insurance regulators who could decide to limit, or require the termination of, such arrangements. In addition, certain of these affiliated reinsurance companies currently are operating at or near minimum capital levels and have required, and may continue to require, additional capital contributions from Radian Group in the future. One of these affiliated insurance companies, which provides reinsurance to Radian Guaranty for coverage in excess of 25% of certain loans insured by Radian Guaranty, is a sister company of Radian Guaranty, and therefore, any contributions to this insurer would not be consolidated with Radian Guaranty's capital for purposes of calculating Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position. In addition, we must obtain prior approval from the GSEs to enter into new, or to modify existing, reinsurance arrangements. If we are limited in, or prohibited from, using reinsurance arrangements to reduce Radian Guaranty's risk, it would adversely affect Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position. In order to maximize our financial flexibility, we have applied for waivers or similar relief for Radian Guaranty in each of the RBC States. Of the 16 RBC states, New York does not possess the regulatory authority to grant waivers and Iowa, Kansas and Ohio have declined to grant waivers to Radian Guaranty. In addition, Oregon has indicated that it will not consider our waiver application until such time that Radian Guaranty has exceeded its Statutory RBC Requirement. Of the remaining 11 RBC States, Radian Guaranty has received waivers or similar relief from the following ten states: Illinois, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey, North Carolina, California, Florida and Texas. Radian Guaranty has one remaining application that is pending in Idaho. There can be no assurance: (1) that Radian Guaranty will be granted a waiver in the remaining RBC State; (2) that for any waiver granted, such regulator will not revoke or terminate the waiver, which the regulator generally has the authority to do at any time; (3) that for any waiver granted, it will be renewed or extended after its original expiration date, which in the case of certain waivers is December 31, 2012; or (4) regarding what, if any, requirements may be imposed as a condition to such waivers or their renewal or extension, and whether we will be able to comply with any such conditions.In addition to filing for waivers in the RBC States, we intend to write new first-lien mortgage insurance business in Radian Mortgage Assurance, in any RBC State that does not permit Radian Guaranty to continue writing insurance while it is out of compliance with applicable Statutory RBC Requirements. Radian Mortgage Assurance is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Radian Guaranty and is licensed to write mortgage insurance in each of the fifty states. In February 2012, Radian Mortgage Assurance received approvals from the GSEs to write new mortgage insurance business in any RBC State where Radian Guaranty would be prohibited from writing new business if it were not in compliance with the state's Statutory RBC Requirement without a waiver or other similar relief. These approvals are temporary (the Fannie Mae approval expires on December 31, 2013, while the Freddie Mac approval expires on December 31, 2012) and are conditioned upon our compliance with a broad range of conditions and restrictions, including without limitation, minimum capital and liquidity requirements, a maximum risk-to-capital ratio of 20 to 1 for Radian Mortgage Assurance, restrictions on the payment of dividends and requirements governing the manner in which Radian Guaranty and Radian Mortgage Assurance conduct affiliate transactions. Under the GSE approvals, Radian Group is also required to contribute $50 million of additional capital to Radian Mortgage Assurance if Radian Guaranty’s risk-to-capital ratio exceeds applicable Statutory RBC Requirements. There can be no assurance that: (1) we will be able to comply with the conditions imposed by the GSEs’ approval for Radian Mortgage Assurance; (2) that the GSEs will not revoke or terminate their approvals, which they generally have the authority to do at any time; (3) that the approvals will be renewed or extended after their original expiration date; or (4) regarding what, if any, additional requirements could be imposed as a condition to such on-going approvals, including their renewal or extension.It is also possible that if Radian Guaranty were not able to comply with the Statutory RBC Requirements of one or more states, the insurance regulatory authorities in states other than the RBC States could prevent Radian Guaranty from continuing to write new business in such states. If this were to occur, we would need to seek approval from the GSEs to expand the scope of their approvals to allow Radian Mortgage Assurance to write business in states other than the RBC States.Our existing capital resources may not be sufficient to successfully manage Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital ratio. Our ability to use waivers and Radian Mortgage Assurance to allow Radian Guaranty to continue to write business with a risk-to-capital position that is not in compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirements is subject to conditions that we may be unable to satisfy. As a result, even if we are successful in implementing this strategy, additional capital contributions could be necessary, which we may not have the ability to provide. Further, regardless of the waivers and the GSEs approval of Radian Mortgage Assurance, we may choose to use our existing capital at Radian Group to maintain compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirements. Depending on the extent of our future incurred losses along with other factors, the amount of capital contributions that may be required to maintain compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirements could be significant and could exceed all of our remaining available capital. In the event we contribute a significant amount of Radian Group's available capital to Radian Guaranty and Radian Mortgage Assurance, our financial flexibility would be significantly reduced, making it more difficult for Radian Group to meet its obligations in the future, including future principal payments on our outstanding debt.
  • We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings. We currently are a party to material litigation, as discussed in “Part II—Other Information—Item 1. Legal Proceedings” in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 30, 2012, and are subject to certain regulatory proceedings. The cost to defend these actions and the ultimate resolution of these matters could have a material adverse impact on our financial results, financial condition, and on the trading price of our common stock. There can be no assurance that additional lawsuits, regulatory proceedings and other matters will not arise.Recently, we have been named as a defendant in a number of putative class action lawsuits alleging, among other things, that our captive reinsurance agreements violate the Real Estate Practices Act of 1974 (“RESPA”). In addition to these private lawsuits, we and other mortgage insurers have been subject to inquiries from the Minnesota Department of Commerce and the Office of the Inspector General of HUD, requesting information relating to captive reinsurance. The Dodd-Frank Act amended RESPA and transferred the authority to implement and enforce the statute from HUD to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”). In January 2012, we and other mortgage insurers received a request for information and documents from the CFPB relating to captive reinsurance arrangements, and in June 2012, we and other mortgage insurers received a Civil Investigative Demand (“CID”) from the CFPB as part of its investigation to determine whether mortgage lenders and private mortgage insurance providers engaged in acts or practices in violation of the Dodd Frank Act, RESPA and the Consumer Financial Protection Act. We are cooperating with the CFPB in its investigation and are in active discussions with the CFPB with respect to our response to the CID. Various regulators, including the CFPB, state insurance commissioners or state attorneys general may bring actions or proceedings regarding our compliance with RESPA or other laws applicable to our mortgage insurance business. We cannot predict whether additional actions or proceedings will be brought against us or the outcome of any such actions or proceedings.We face an increasing number of challenges from certain of our lender customers regarding our insurance rescissions and claim denials. These discussions, if not resolved, could result in arbitration or judicial proceedings.There has been increased litigation in our industry relating to rescissions and denials. On August 1, 2011, we filed a lawsuit against Quicken in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, seeking a declaratory judgment that we properly rescinded mortgage insurance coverage under our Master Policy and delegated underwriting endorsement for approximately 140 home mortgage loans originated by Quicken based upon deficiencies and improprieties in the underwriting process. We cannot predict whether additional actions may be brought against us and the outcome of the Quicken litigation or other additional actions. Because the Quicken litigation relates to mortgage insurance policy terms and practices that are widely used in the mortgage insurance industry, the outcome of this litigation or other litigation in our industry relating to rescissions may impact us. If this litigation results in a change in mortgage insurance policy terms and practices that are widely used by the mortgage insurance industry, including by us, or if we engage in further material litigation with any customer and, as a result, the customer limits the amount of business they conduct with us or terminates our business relationship altogether, it could have a negative impact on our business and results of operations.

Other risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements include the following:

  • changes in general economic and political conditions, including high unemployment rates and continued weakness in the U.S. housing and mortgage credit markets, the U.S. economy reentering a recessionary period, a significant downturn in the global economy, a lack of meaningful liquidity in the capital or credit markets, changes or volatility in interest rates or consumer confidence and changes in credit spreads, each of which may be accelerated or intensified by, among other things, further actual or threatened downgrades of U.S. credit ratings;
  • changes in the way customers, investors, regulators or legislators perceive the strength of private mortgage insurers or financial guaranty providers, in particular in light of developments in the private mortgage insurance and financial guaranty industries in which certain of our former competitors have ceased writing new insurance business and have been placed under supervision or receivership by insurance regulators;
  • catastrophic events or economic changes in geographic regions, including governments and municipalities, where our mortgage insurance exposure is more concentrated or where we have financial guaranty exposure;
  • our ability to maintain sufficient holding company liquidity to meet our short- and long-term liquidity needs, including in particular, the repayment of our long-term debt and additional capital contributions that may be required to support our mortgage insurance business;
  • a further reduction in, or prolonged period of depressed levels of, home mortgage originations due to reduced liquidity in the lending market, tighter underwriting standards, general reduced housing demand in the U.S., potential risk retention requirements established under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the "Dodd-Frank Act") and potential increases in capital requirements for banks and bank holding companies for mortgage loans under proposed interagency rules to implement Basel III ;
  • our ability to maintain an adequate risk-to-capital position and surplus requirements in our mortgage insurance business, including if necessary, our ability to write new mortgage insurance while maintaining a capital position that is in excess of risk-based capital limitations imposed in certain states, either through waivers of these limitations or through use of another mortgage insurance subsidiary, and the possibility that state regulators could pursue regulatory actions or proceedings, including possible supervisory or receivership actions, against Radian Guaranty, in the event Radian Guaranty's risk-to-capital position exceeds levels that are acceptable to such regulators;
  • our ability to continue to effectively mitigate our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty losses;
  • the ability of our primary insurance customers in our financial guaranty reinsurance business to provide appropriate surveillance and to mitigate losses adequately with respect to our assumed insurance portfolio;
  • a more rapid than expected decrease in the level of insurance rescissions and claim denials from the current elevated levels, which have reduced our paid losses and resulted in a significant reduction in our loss reserves, including a decrease in rescissions or denials resulting from an increase in the number of successful challenges to previously rescinded policies or claim denials, or caused by the government-sponsored entities ("GSEs") intervening in mortgage insurers' loss mitigation practices, including settlements of disputes;
  • the negative impact our insurance rescissions and claim denials or claim curtailments may have on our relationships with customers and potential customers, including the potential loss of business and the heightened risk of disputes and litigation;
  • the need, in the event that we are unsuccessful in defending our rescissions or denials, to increase our loss reserves for, and reassume risk on, rescinded or denied loans, and to pay additional claims;
  • any disruption in the servicing of mortgages covered by our insurance policies and poor servicer performance;
  • adverse changes in the severity or frequency of losses associated with certain products that we formerly offered (and currently insure) that are riskier than traditional mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance policies;
  • a decrease in persistency rates of our mortgage insurance policies, which has the effect of reducing our premium incomes without a corresponding decrease in incurred losses;
  • an increase in the risk profile of our existing mortgage insurance portfolio due to the refinancing of existing mortgage loans for only the most qualified borrowers in the current mortgage and housing market;
  • changes in the criteria for assigning credit or similar ratings, further downgrades or threatened downgrades of, or other ratings actions with respect to, our credit ratings or the ratings assigned to any of our rated insurance subsidiaries at any time, including in particular, the credit ratings of Radian Group Inc. ("Radian Group") and the financial strength ratings assigned to Radian Guaranty Inc. ("Radian Guaranty");
  • heightened competition for our mortgage insurance business from others such as the Federal Housing Administration (the "FHA"), the Department of Veterans Affairs ("VA") and other private mortgage insurers (in particular, the FHA and those private mortgage insurers that have been assigned higher ratings than us from the major rating agencies, that may have access to greater amounts of capital than we do, or new entrants to the industry that are not burdened by legacy obligations);
  • changes in the charters or business practices of, or rules or regulations applicable to, Federal National Mortgage Association ("Fannie Mae") and Freddie Mac, the largest purchasers of mortgage loans that we insure, and our ability to remain an eligible provider to both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
  • changes to the current system of housing finance, including the possibility of a new system in which private mortgage insurers are not required or their products are significantly limited in scope;
  • the effect of the Dodd-Frank Act on the financial services industry in general and on our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in particular, including (1) whether and to what extent loans with mortgage insurance are considered "qualified residential mortgages" for purposes of the Dodd-Frank Act securitization provisions or "qualified mortgages" for purposes of the ability to repay provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, and the possibility that the ultimate definitions of "qualified residential mortgages" and "qualified mortgages" could reduce the size of the mortgage market and potentially reduce the number of insurable loans; and (2) the possibility that our financial guaranty business could be subject to additional registration, reporting, capital and margin requirements, including potentially, the posting of collateral for certain existing derivative contracts;
  • the application of existing federal or state consumer, lending, insurance, tax, securities and other applicable laws and regulations, or changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted, including, without limitation: (i) the outcome of existing, or the possibility of additional, lawsuits or investigations; and (ii) legislative and regulatory changes (a) impacting the demand for private mortgage insurance, (b) limiting or restricting our use of (or increasing requirements for) additional capital and the products we may offer, (c) affecting the form in which we execute credit protection, or (d) impacting our existing financial guaranty portfolio;
  • the amount and timing of potential payments or adjustments associated with federal or other tax examinations;
  • the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in connection with establishing loss reserves for our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty businesses or premium deficiencies for our mortgage insurance business, or to estimate accurately the fair value amounts of derivative instruments in determining gains and losses on these instruments;
  • volatility in our earnings caused by changes in the fair value of our assets and liabilities carried at fair value, including our derivative instruments, and our need to reevaluate the possibility of a premium deficiency in our mortgage insurance business on a quarterly basis;
  • our ability to realize the tax benefits associated with our gross deferred tax assets, which will depend on our ability to generate sufficient sustainable taxable income in future periods;
  • changes in accounting principles, rules and guidance, or their interpretation, from the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Accounting Standards Board; and
  • legal and other limitations on amounts we may receive from our subsidiaries as dividends or through our tax- and expense-sharing arrangements with our subsidiaries.

For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties as well as certain additional risks that we face, you should refer to the Risk Factors detailed in Item 1A of Part I of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011, and subsequent reports and registration statements filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Stock quotes in this article: RDN 

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