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One potential earnings short-squeeze play in the biotechnology and drugs complex is
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals(BMRN - Get Report), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. This company develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals for serious diseases and medical conditions. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect BioMarin Pharmaceuticals to report revenue of $121.72 million on a loss of 21 cents per share.
A few weeks ago, Piper Jaffray's Ian Somaiya reiterated his overweight rating and raised his price target for BioMarin Pharmaceuticals to $52 a share, following the addition of company's BMN-701 to his model ahead of a "data-rich" second half of 2012. Somaiya sees the Phase III GALNS trial offering multiple opportunities for success.
The current short interest as a percentage of the float for BioMarin Pharmaceuticals is rather high at 9.6%. That means that out of the 115.16 million shares in the tradable float, 11.71 million shares are sold short by the bears.
technical perspective, BMRN is currently trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending very strong for the last four months, with shares soaring from a low of $31.91 to a recent high of $44.18 a share. Since tagging that high at $44.18, shares of BMRN have pulled back and bounced modestly off its 50-day moving average of $38.77 a share.
If you're in the bull camp on BMRN, then I would wait until after it reports and look for long-biased trades if the stock holds its trend above its 50-day, and then takes out some near-term overhead resistance at $41 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that clocks in close to or above its three-month average action of 1.7 million shares. If we get that action, then I fully expect BMRN to re-test and possibly take out its
52-week high of $44.18 a share post-earnings.
I would simply avoid BMRN or look for short-biased trades if after earnings the stock fails to trigger that breakout, and then moves back below its 50-day moving average of $35.58 a share with high volume. If we get that action, then look for the bears to hammer BMRN down towards its 200-day moving average of $35.58 a share, or possibly even lower toward $34 to $33 a share.