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Will the Market's Direction Determine the Presidency?

In early August last year, the S&P dropped 12% in three days because of the unease over the euro crisis and the U.S. debt downgrade.

Both have parallels to what's happening today, says Ed Hyman from ISI. He speculates that the U.S. will see a "repeat of 2010-2011, which implies a weaker economy for a few more months before improving in the fall."

However, there are positive signs in the U.S. market today, with ISI pointing to an energy and tech boom, interest rates near zero and a cheap dollar. Also, U.S. consumers are reducing their debt burdens, with household debt as a percentage of disposable income having come off its high, and house prices in America are "among the world's cheapest," according to The Economist.

Which way do you think the market will head over the next few months?

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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