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Surviving RadioShack in a Wal-Mart World

Target investors have been rewarded with an increase of year-over-year revenue. Revenue reported was $69.87 billion last fiscal year compared to $67.39 billion in the previous year. The bottom line has rising earnings year-over-year of $2.93 billion last fiscal year compared to $2.92 billion in the previous year.

Like RadioShack, and unlike Wal-Mart and Target, Best Buy (BBY - Get Report) is struggling. The nationwide electronics retailer is contending with Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) right along with RadioShack.

At least up until now, shareholders have not punished Amazon's inability to produce meaningful profits. I believe that will change sooner or later, but for now Amazon gets a free pass on making profits.

Revenue for Amazon year-over-year has increased to $48.08 billion last fiscal year compared to $34.20 billion in the previous year. The bottom line has falling earnings year-over-year of $631 million last fiscal year compared to $1.15 billion in the previous year.

Profit of $631 million sounds like a lot until you have to divide it up among 450 million-plus shares. I believe Amazon is overpriced, but that doesn't help RadioShack right now.

Based on my experience with gap-downs following earnings misses, RadioShack investors will see short-term lows Thursday or Monday. Wednesday's open near the high of the day suggests investors are not going to stampede to their brokers and buy all the shares they want to buy.

Bargain hunters and short-sellers covering positions could push the price up quickly in relation to the gap-down price this week.

Looking at the chart, I expect short-term resistance near $3 and again at $3.50. Round numbers often attract like a price magnet and repel, causing a bounce. Expect a lot of bargain hunters to start positions under $2 as an entry.

RadioShack doesn't have oversized debt relative to the cash on hand and the price-to-earnings multiple is reasonable unless the losses continue.

If you were looking for Wednesday's drop to signal a buying opportunity, you may find the end of the day Thursday or opening on Friday a better time. There is no hurry jumping on board with RadioShack. Stocks dumping as a result of misses like this one take one or two good earnings quarters to recover.
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RSH $0.31 12.76%
AMZN $502.13 0.00%
BBY $28.20 0.00%
TGT $69.56 0.00%
WMT $67.00 0.00%


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