NEW YORK (
) -- So now it seems sentiment is starting to shift away from asking if the
will unleash additional stimulus to trying to pin down when.
But maybe the bigger question is what can investors reasonably expect more action from the Fed to accomplish? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury hovering right around historic lows, it's not like the central bank can do much to lessen the attractiveness of bonds and encourage investors to take more risk. They clearly don't want to go that route in a world where the U.S. economy is limping along, the future of the eurozone is in doubt and growth in China is slowing.
Paul Dales, chief U.S. economist at
, weighed in on what the Fed does next in commentary released on Wednesday, putting the odds of QE3 arriving by the end of 2012 at 50/50. He doubts the Fed will take action at its policy meeting next week but acknowledges the trend in the data is worrisome to point in that direction.
"It is pretty clear that the economic recovery looks more fragile now than it did last month," he said. "Since the previous FOMC meeting it has emerged that non-farm payroll employment rose by less than 100,000 for the third month in a row in June. And the drop in the ISM manufacturing index to below the symbolic 50 mark in the same month points to a slowdown in annualised GDP growth to between 1.0% and 1.5%."
While QE3 may not be a done deal, Dales said he's becoming "more convinced" that the Fed could get creative, "possibly launching its own version of the Bank of England's funding for lending scheme" and he thinks this could have a bigger impact on the economy than another round of bond buying.
"[G]iven that some households are still struggling to get credit, we doubt that QE3 would alter the economic outlook materially," he said. "The Fed appears to be coming round to this view. So even if doesn't launch QE3, it may well establish its own version of the Bank of England's funding for lending scheme in an attempt to boost the supply of credit."