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Nothing to Fear in Apple Call, but No Need to Rush to Buy

The big reason for the miss Tuesday was obviously iPhone sales, which came in at 27 million instead of the 30.5 that was the Wall Street consensus.

As time goes on, it seems like many consumers are being conditioned to bunch their iPhone purchases just after it's released -- especially if Apple stays on its schedule of yearly releases in September or October. It's not good or bad; it's just the way it is now.

Apple shareholders are still set up for big fall-season and holiday sales for iPhone 5.

It's notable that the iPads did so well in Tuesday's results: 17 million were sold in the quarter (best ever). That represented a 44% sequential growth rate in units sold -- and we didn't even have any help from China to get to that number. The iPad 3 didn't start selling in mainland China until last Friday. It's worth remembering though that some of these iPad sales in the quarter announced Tuesday could have been to the channel to top up supply; that means we might see more weakness next quarter, especially as the focus goes to the smaller iPads.

The bottom line here is that I still love Apple and still stand with my longer-term call of it going to $1,650 by end of 2015. However, it's quite possible we trade down to $500 over the rest of the summer.

In my view, the next catalysts are all coming in the fall with the new iPhone (now rumored to be coming in September), a smaller iPad and then an announcement of TV (maybe not until 2013).

Apple's stock has a history of big moves and then long periods of consolidation. I think we're going to be in a holding pattern for another couple of months after this.

Although many people will be telling you to, I don't think you need to "buy the dip" today on Apple.

At the time of publication, the author was long AAPL.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Eric Jackson is founder and Managing Member of Ironfire Capital and the general partner and investment manager of Ironfire Capital US Fund LP and Ironfire Capital International Fund, Ltd. In January 2007, Jackson started the world's first Internet-based campaign to increase shareholder value at Yahoo!, leading to a change in CEOs in 2007. He also spoke out in favor of Yahoo!'s accepting Microsoft's buyout offer in 2008. Global Proxy Watch named Jackson as one of its 10 "Stars" who positively influenced international corporate governance and shareowner value in 2007.

Prior to founding Ironfire Capital, Jackson was President and CEO of Jackson Leadership Systems, Inc., a leadership, strategy, and governance consulting firm. He completed his Ph.D. in the Management Department at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, with a specialization in Strategic Management and Corporate Governance, and holds a B.A. from McGill University.

He was previously Vice President of Strategy and Business Development at VoiceGenie Technologies, a software firm now owned by Alcatel-Lucent. In 2004, Jackson founded the Young Patrons' Circle at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto, which is now the second-largest social and philanthropic group of its kind in North America, raising $500,000 annually for the museum. You can follow Jackson on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ericjackson or @ericjackson.

You can contact Eric by emailing him at eric.jackson@thestreet.com.

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