The year-to-date closing lows for 2012 were set on June 4 at 12,101.46 for the Dow industrials and 4847.73 for the Dow transports. Closes below both of these levels would confirm a Dow Theory sell signal.
A year ago, the market was facing issues similar to the ones it confronts today. The U.S. had lost its triple-A rating, European debt concerns dominated headlines and there was discussion about the failure of QE2. Today, the European debt crisis is still front and center, and Wall Street is abuzz with predictions the Federal Reserve will offer QE3.
If we get a Dow Theory sell signal, the downside risk appears to be similar to 2011. The Dow transports fell nearly 30% from their all-time high on July 7 to a low of 3,950.66 on Oct. 4, 2011. The Dow industrials fell 19% from its May 2 high to a low of 10,404.49 on Oct. 4, 2011.
Before the market opened Tuesday, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue. The package shipper also lowered its full-year outlook, and its shares fell 3.61% on the day, closing below their 200-day simple moving average at $75.19.Following are updated profiles for the transportation stocks I analyzed in June 2011.
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