Kass: Fair Market Value Update
This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:21 a.m. EDT on July 18.
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- In large measure, the worsening macroeconomic situation in Europe, China and the U.S. is leading me to reduce further my calculation of the S&P 500's fair market value from 1430 to 1415, which is still about 4% above the cash level at Tuesday's close of trading (1363).
- I am keeping the chances of the two tail events -- namely, a reacceleration of U.S. growth and a U.S. recession in 2013 -- at 5% each.
- I am increasing the probability of sub-1.5% 2013 real GDP growth from 35% to 40%.
- I am reducing the likelihood of my baseline, muddle-through scenario (defined as 2013 real GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2.5%) from 55% to 50%.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV