One of the primary drivers of my perceived negative outlook has to do with one word and one word only -- "valuation."
While it is used by many market participants, not everyone has a true appreciation for what it means. I might be considered innately pessimistic, but I would also categorize myself as a long-term bull, not only on the market but on our economy.
That said, I am still unable to ignore the fact that certain stocks, such as Salesforce.com (CRM), have recently approached valuation levels they have no business reaching. I need to point out not all bearishness is the same.One Bear, Two Reasons Take Research in Motion, which has continued to not only mismanage its business, but to mismanage investor expectations. It has allowed Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) to peel off layer after layer from its market share and market cap and is now facing bankruptcy dead in the face. What's more, current investors appear committed to going down with the ship without realizing its current low price will never return to its glory years. This current market simply will not allow it. Nor does RIM appear to want to compete in any meaningful way. Where exactly is the glass-half-full potential when the company insists that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with its current state, although it has lost 95% of its value over the past three years? It said this after announcing a quarter where it lost over half a billion dollars. So how can anyone with an objective eye not appreciate that I have justification to be bearish on the stock? Conversely, there is Sirius XM. Understandably, my recent opinions have rubbed a lot of readers the wrong way. However, it has not been for the same reason as RIM. In fact, Sirius' performance has proven to be quite the opposite. The company continues to not only pay down its debt, but it continues to grow its subscriber base at a respectable rate, particularly in an environment where it is competing for listening ears with free alternatives including Pandora (P), Spotify and a host of other IP-based content.
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