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JPMorgan: 'Whale' Loss Winner (Update 1)

Bank of America (BAC - Get Report) will announced its second-quarter results on Tuesday, with analysts expecting a profit of 14 cents a share, improving from three cents in the first quarter, and a 90-cent loss in the second quarter of 2011, when the company entered into an $8.5 billion mortgage putback settlement with private investors.

The shares were rose 5% on Friday, to close at $7.82.

In the wake of JPMorgan Chase's second-quarter earnings announcement, KBW analyst Fred Cannon said on Friday that he felt "better about BAC's potential mortgage results after seeing JPM's strong 14% q/q volume growth and the strong margins that remained," and that "while BAC has been losing market share in the mortgage origination business of late, we still view this as a positive indicator and believe that BAC could beat our $1.9B mortgage banking revenue estimate by as much as $300-$400 million and rebound towards 4Q11 results."

Cannon stuck with his second-quarter EPS estimate of 23 cents for Bank of America, which "nets down to about $0.18 excluding an ineffective hedge that should negatively impact the [net interest margin]."

Since "Investment Banking revenues at JPM were down slightly (~8%), while income rose in the quarter," Cannon said that KBW was "forecasting for a 10% decline in BAC's Investment Banking revenue and now feel more confident about these estimates." The analyst added that "we do feel that based on JPM's trading results that BAC could show some slight upside to our $3B estimate for the quarter," and also said that while his firm had predicted a decline in trading income of over 45% for Bank of America, "JPM's decline of only 30% lead us to believe that BAC could show similarly resilient trading income levels."

Bank of America's have now returned 41% year-to-date, after dropping 58% during 2011.

BAC Chart BAC data by YCharts

The shares trade for 0.6 times their reported March 31 tangible book value of $12.87, and for eight times the consensus 2013 EPS estimate of 96 cents. The consensus 2012 EPS estimate is 57 cents.

Interested in more on Bank of America? See TheStreet Ratings' report card for this stock.


-- Written by Philip van Doorn in Jupiter, Fla.

>Contact by Email.

Philip W. van Doorn is a member of TheStreet's banking and finance team, commenting on industry and regulatory trends. He previously served as the senior analyst for Ratings, responsible for assigning financial strength ratings to banks and savings and loan institutions. Mr. van Doorn previously served as a loan operations officer at Riverside National Bank in Fort Pierce, Fla., and as a credit analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, where he monitored banks in New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. Mr. van Doorn has additional experience in the mutual fund and computer software industries. He holds a bachelor of science in business administration from Long Island University.
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