The bank's stock, which was above $40 when news broke of the $2 billion-and-counting loss on a credit derivatives hedge, finished Thursday at $34.04, and there's some sentiment out there that full disclosure will be a liberating experience for the shares.
"JPM has promised to reveal the extent and size of the large recent trading losses, and provide an updated timetable for the unwinding of these trades," wrote S&P Capital IQ ahead of the numbers. "We think this will provide closure and stability, and will reduce risk. We also expect the trading loss will be partly offset by other securities gains and mortgage banking revenues in Q2."
The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for a profit of 72 cents a share from JPMorgan on revenue of $21.9 billion in the June-ended period.
S&P Capital IQ is maintaining its buy rating and $40 price target on the stock, and it's expecting earnings to come in at 77 cents a share, topping the consensus view by a nickel. The firm doesn't believe the bank is quite ready to tip its hat about when it could begin buying back its stock again."[W]e expect JPM to provide no details, until its Board meets, on whether or not it will restart its $15B share repurchase program," the firm said. "Based on our own analysis, we think it is likely that JPM's trading losses will be closed out by mid year, and that a share repurchase program will be restarted later this year. Our '13 EPS estimate of $5.20 assumes a restart of the share repurchase program." The sell side is still bullish about JPMorgan with 23 of the 33 analysts covering the stock at either strong buy (7) or buy (16) and the median 12-month price target at $46, implying potential upside of 35% from Thursday's close. The other big name in banking that's set to report is Wells Fargo (WFC). The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for earnings of 81 cents a share from San Francisco-based Wells on revenue of $21.4 billion. Wells' shares are up nearly 20% so far in 2012 and the bank has a two-quarter streak of delivering upside surprises on the line.
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