As such, I had no choice but to sell about 75% of my NOK position. Honestly, I only kept the rest because of the dividend. That doesn't mean I do not believe in the turnaround.
You can believe in the long-term story but rate the stock a "hold" or "sell" today. Right now, I lean towards 'sell.' I fully realize that I might be -- finally -- calling NOK a sell at the bottom. But that's actually the rational thing to do in this situation.
Critics call investors who change their minds flip-floppers. I call them smart with the keen ability to challenge and reassess their own convictions.
If my long-term bull case for NOK ends up playing out, I will have plenty of time to get long again and make money. NOK is not going from 0 to 60 overnight. If Windows 8 helps drive sales at Nokia like I expect, any entry under $3 or $4 will probably end up being alright.But, keep in mind, that's a wholly speculative bet. Very risky. I don't view INTC quite the same way. Buying more INTC as it stumbles does not happen out of unreasonable stick-to-itiveness.
Unlike at AMD (and NOK, for that matter), already massive revenue at Intel continue to rise. The company pays a stable and growing dividend. But more than that, Intel continues to innovate in a wide range of areas, including forward-looking and diverse spaces such as automotive technology and social publishing. Like many Silicon Valley companies, Intel tinkers quite a bit. Sort of like Google (GOOG), except Intel actually fully invests in its initiatives and takes many of them somewhere. Think about it. Intel literally dictates the direction of the PC industry. The only company it even remotely answers to is Apple (AAPL). Meantime, Microsoft (MSFT) ends up taking Intel's cue as to the way forward. It's less like a partnership or more a they say "jump", you say "how high" relationship. While Intel probably does cartwheels after Apple includes its chips in a new Macbook, it tells Microsoft and the company's pathetic hardware partners ultrabooks are the future. We'll give you some seed money. You will build them to our specifications. Good day.