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Surviving OCZ: More Than a Hard Drive Crash

Intel offers consumer-grade SSD drives; however, the last time I checked on prices, the Intel brand sells at a considerable premium. If Intel grows their SSD market and or becomes aggressive with pricing, it could quickly change the outlook for OCZ.

Seagate reports after the closing bell on July 30, 2012, and the market is not pricing in the disappointment by OCZ. Seagate continues to trade off the technical support areas and appears to have a couple of price tests coming up.

Seagate is trading just below the 60- and 90-day moving averages and is well above the widely watched 200-day moving average. If Seagate is growing despite OCZ's record revenue, Seagate may sail above the resistance and use the moving averages as support.

STX Chart STX data by YCharts

Seagate uses solid state technology in several models and may have found a one-size-fits all type of drive by combining both solid state memory chips with a rotating platter system. The margining of technology offers greater speed than traditional hard drives, while costing less than a pure SSD.

What's the best play with OCZ? There should be a very attractive trade coming up by the end of this week.

Near the end of the day on Friday if still trading lower, sell out of the money puts. Fear of continued losses tends to push portfolio insurance prices up dramatically, while at the same time the stock should bottom. It's not one to get greedy with -- hold on for a few days and as the implied volatility falls (hopefully with a nice dead cat bounce) exit out with a quick hit and run for profits. Otherwise for longer term investors, the best play is to wait until we are closer to the next earnings release for an entry.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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