Citi's Hidemaru Yamaguchi:
"We expect a 2013 launch for Belviq, with sales of $25.17 million in FY3/13, $125.86 million in FY3/14, $377.57 million in FY3/15, $566.36 million in FY3/16, and $623 million in FY3/17."
Barclays' Atsushi Seki:"We revise our forecasts for Eisai to factor in sales of the obesity drug Belviq. We maintain our 2-EW rating on a peer comparison and expect investors to now focus on the drug's pricing, insurance coverage, and competition. This is not a high-margin drug for Eisai; we think gross margin could range from 30–50% depending on sales. We also expect Eisai to shoulder 90% of the costs for an upcoming clinical testing of the drug’s long-term safety and accordingly raise our forecast for R&D spending." Lastly, the most optimistic Belviq outlook comes from Goldman Sachs' Steve Chesney: "In our view, FDA approval without the need for additional pre-approval trials is a positive for Eisai. Approval came with some caveats, however, including that dosing should be stopped if 5% weight loss is not achieved within 12 weeks. Based upon the Belviq clinical data (58% of patients fail to achieve 5% weight loss by week 12) and the commercial experience of other weight loss drugs with similar efficacy, we believe lack of efficacy will significantly limit uptake for Belviq… Although we forecast $1.1bn
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