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Biotech Stock Mailbag: Amarin or Arena Takeout?

@glopolon asks, "$ARNA = $AFFY? More or less?"

Affymax (AFFY) shares dropped from $14 to $10 in the two weeks after FDA approved Omontys, a once-monthly anemia drug, this past spring. The stock has recovered a bit but is still down about 6% since Omontys' approval. So, yeah, Arena and Affymax are acting in similar ways post-drug approval.

Takeda sells Omontys on behalf of Affymax but how the product's sales will be reported publicly each quarter is not yet clear. Affymax spokeswoman Sylvia Wheeler told me that the company and Takeda are still working through the disclosure process. Affymax reports third-quarter financials in August.

Regarding Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE) and the looming expiration of an insider stock lockup, Joe remarks, "Funny that the CEO and CSO's press release regarding voluntary extension of their lock-up was not followed by an SEC filing. I get the sense that AMPE's CEO and CSO might very well change their minds and not inform the shareholders. That press release is meaningless."

Good point. Even if Ampio's CEO and CSO do extend their lock-up agreement for another six months, plenty of other company insiders remain free to sell millions of shares starting July 15.

James asks, "Any chance you are going to take another look at Nymox Pharmaceuticals (NYMX)?"

Nymox remains opaque about the clinical development of NX-207, its experimental drug for benign prostatic hyperplasia, or enlarged prostate. When I last wrote about Nymox in February 2011, CEO Paul Averbeck told me he expected to file NX-207 for FDA approval in 2012, assuming the ongoing phase III studies were positive.

But since Nymox doesn't provide any meaningful updates about the progress of the phase III trials, it's impossible to say whether the company is on track to meet its development timelines for NX-207. I have my serious doubts, particularly since Nymox has never disclosed much about the drug, and what it has disclosed makes little sense.

Why trust a drug company unwilling to be transparent with its shareholders or potential investors?

Andrew I. asks, "Will Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) ever recover? Lost half of the value today and have to do a new study. Down to about 85 cents today. Think a lot of the bad news was already priced in and that this news is really not a surprise. I can understand why the company would try to re-work their current study 306B but not surprised at all the FDA said no deal. What are your thoughts?"

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