This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

Downside Risks for Gold, Oil and Stocks

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- This week's volatility within the U.S. capital markets was influenced by generally weak economic data, the Supreme Court's decision on Obamacare, and now this morning the positive reaction to the bailout plans from the European Union.

Overnight we learned that eurozone leaders agreed to form a centralized supervisory body for eurozone banks by the end of 2012, which is a major step to creating a European banking union.

If this morning's market strength in gold, crude oil and stocks holds or extends into today's closes, it will effect my projections for the second half of 2012. In looking at the daily charts, however, the impact is within the recent trading ranges. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is between the low of the past two weeks at 1.555 and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.731.

Comex gold, which traded as low as $1,547.60 the troy ounce Thursday, rebounded to $1,574 overnight, still below my annual pivot at $1575.80. Nymex crude oil, which traded as low as $77.28 per barrel Thursday remains below its 200-week simple moving average at $80.51 Friday. The euro vs. the dollar rebounded to 1.2624 still below the two-week high at 1.2746.



Next week I will have new weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual value levels, pivots and risky levels for yields, commodities, currencies, the major equity averages and more than 7,000 stocks. Annual value levels, pivots and risky levels remain the same and will not change until the end of the year.

Remember my theory: Nine years of market closes factor in all possible bullish or bearish events for any given market or stock. My models are designed to evaluate the risk reward between value levels and risky levels with pivots in-between suggesting reversal-oriented trading.

In addition to my proprietary analytics, this is a time of the year to analyze the monthly charts to see if there are any important patterns or moving averages to help make second-half forecasts. Today, I will evaluate the monthly charts for: The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, Comex Gold, Nymex Crude Oil, the Euro vs. U.S. dollar, and the Dow Industrial Average.

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
DOW 16,757.44 +296.12 1.80%
S&P 500 1,960.28 +33.17 1.72%
NASDAQ 4,471.8070 +88.96 2.03%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs